2024 지방선거: 서울·경기·부산 등 주요 지역 선거 전망 및 후보 분석

Pre-election activity is underway across South Korea as registration for candidates in the upcoming 9th local elections opened on February 3rd. Attention is focused on key races in Seoul, Gyeonggi Province, and the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region, as well as areas undergoing administrative integration.

Seoul’s Shifting Political Landscape

A Democratic Party insider described the upcoming Seoul mayoral election as “not easy,” despite polls indicating over half of voters expect a Democratic Party candidate to win. Recent surveys show a tight race between current Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party and potential Democratic Party contenders.

Seoul has historically been a key battleground for both parties. In 2018, Park Won-soon secured a third term with 52.8% of the vote. However, Oh Se-hoon won a 2021 by-election and subsequently secured a fourth term in 2022 with 59.1% of the vote.

Several current Democratic Party lawmakers have announced their candidacy, including Park Hong-geun, Seo Young-kyo, Park Ju-min, Jeon Hyeon-hee, and Kim Young-bae. Jeong Won-o, the Seongdong District Mayor, has also gained prominence after receiving public praise from President Lee Jae-myung, and Park Yong-jin, a former lawmaker, is preparing to run. Kim Hyung-nam, a former secretary-general of the Military Human Rights centre, has also registered as a Democratic Party candidate. The Progressive Party has nominated Lee Sang-gyu as its candidate, and the Justice Party also plans to field a candidate. Within the People Power Party, Na Kyung-won and Yoon Hee-suk are potential challengers to Mayor Oh.

The 2024 Seoul Survey indicates a shift in the city’s political leanings, with 40.3% identifying as conservative, 37.3% as progressive, and 22.3% as moderate. This contrasts with a 2014 survey showing 38.3% identifying as progressive, 31.8% as conservative, and 30.0% as moderate. Factors such as rising property prices and an aging electorate are believed to be contributing to this change.

Gyeonggi Province: From ‘Graveyard’ to ‘Kingmaker’

Gyeonggi Province, home to a quarter of South Korea’s population, has historically been considered a political obstacle for presidential hopefuls. However, President Lee Jae-myung’s success in the region has transformed it into a potential launchpad for future leaders. The Democratic Party anticipates a competitive internal primary, while the People Power Party faces challenges in identifying viable candidates.

The Democratic Party is expected to see a fierce competition for its nomination. Potential candidates include current Governor Kim Dong-yeon, and lawmakers Chu Mi-ae, Kwon Chil-seung, Kim Byung-ju, and Han Jun-ho, as well as former lawmaker Yang Gi-dae. Recent polls suggest a three-way race between Kim Dong-yeon, Chu Mi-ae, and Han Jun-ho.

The People Power Party currently lacks declared candidates. Discussions are underway regarding potential candidates, including Kim Eun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, as well as former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min. Hong Seong-gyu, a spokesperson for the Progressive Party, has already announced his candidacy.

Administrative Integration and Regional Races

The upcoming elections in areas pursuing administrative integration – Gwangju and South Jeolla Province, Daejeon and South Chungcheong Province, and Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province – add complexity to the races as candidates vie to lead the newly formed entities.

In Gwangju and South Jeolla Province, eight Democratic Party members, including current mayors and lawmakers, are being considered. In Daejeon and South Chungcheong Province, the focus has shifted towards candidates with national recognition. In Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, all potential candidates from the People Power Party are considered contenders for the unified leadership position.

Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam: Democratic Party’s Pursuit of Recovery

The Democratic Party aims to regain control of the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, which were lost in the 2022 local elections.

The Busan mayoral race is expected to be a contest between Jeon Jae-soo, a former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries, and incumbent Mayor Park Hyung-jun. Lee Jae-sung, a former Democratic Party candidate, has also registered. Kim Do-eup and Cho Gyeong-tae are also potential candidates from the People Power Party. Yun Taek-geun, a former leader of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, is running for the Progressive Party.

In Ulsan, incumbent Mayor Kim Du-gyeom is expected to face challenges from Song Cheol-ho, a former mayor, and Lee Sun-ho, an aide to the President. Kim Sang-uk, a lawmaker, is also a potential candidate. Kim Jong-hoon, a Dong-gu mayor, is running for the Progressive Party.

The Gyeongnam gubernatorial race features a potential rematch between former Governor Kim Gyeong-su and current Governor Park Wan-soo. Jo Hae-jin, a three-term lawmaker, has also announced his candidacy. Jeon Hee-young, a former head of the Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union, is running for the Progressive Party.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the administrative integration efforts?

Administrative integration aims to streamline governance and improve efficiency by merging neighboring local governments. The upcoming elections will determine the leadership of these newly integrated entities.

How has Seoul’s political landscape changed recently?

Seoul is showing a shift towards a more conservative electorate, as indicated by the 2024 Seoul Survey, which found 40.3% identifying as conservative compared to 38.3% in 2014.

What challenges does the People Power Party face in Gyeonggi Province?

The People Power Party is currently struggling to identify strong candidates for the Gyeonggi gubernatorial race, facing an internal “personnel shortage” as described in the source.

As candidate registration opens, what factors do you believe will ultimately sway voters in these crucial local elections?