2026 Farmers Insurance Open: Odds, Picks & Projected Leaderboard from Expert Model

The 2026 Farmers Insurance Open is set to begin this Thursday at the Torrey Pines South Course in San Diego, California, attracting a strong field of professional golfers. While Scottie Scheffler, fresh off a win at The American Express, will not be competing this week, the tournament still boasts notable players including Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay.

A Competitive Field Takes Shape

Xander Schauffele currently holds the position of highest-ranked player in the field, sitting at No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). FanDuel Sportsbook lists him as the +1300 favorite to win. Ludvig Aberg follows closely at +1700, with Patrick Cantlay at +1900 and Cameron Young at +2200.

Did You Know? The first tee times for the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open are scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET.

Adding an interesting dynamic to the competition is the return of Brooks Koepka to the PGA Tour after recently leaving LIV Golf. He is considered a longshot with odds of +6000.

Data-Driven Predictions

A computer model developed by DFS pro Mike McClure at SportsLine has been simulating the tournament 10,000 times to project the leaderboard. This model has demonstrated success in predicting golf outcomes, having been profitable on its golf betting picks since June 2020, with over $8,000 in earnings. It has also correctly predicted the winners of 16 major championships, including the 2025 Masters, the PGA Championship, and the Open Championship.

Expert Insight: The consistent success of the SportsLine model highlights the growing role of data analytics in professional golf, where even slight advantages in prediction can translate to significant returns for informed bettors and fantasy players.

The model’s simulations have identified a surprising outcome: Si Woo Kim, despite recent strong performances with a T11 at the Sony Open and a T6 at The American Express, is projected to fall short of a top-5 finish. His past performance at Torrey Pines, with no top-10 finishes in eight attempts and two missed cuts, may be a contributing factor.

Cantlay as a Value Pick

Conversely, the model identifies Patrick Cantlay as a potentially strong betting value. Despite a mixed track record at this event, including a first-round 65 last year followed by a struggling weekend, the model projects a more consistent performance this year. McClure suggests Cantlay is a “core outright bet target” this week.

Looking Ahead

The model has also pinpointed a +28000 underdog as “the best positive EV longshot on the board,” though specific details are available only through SportsLine. It is possible that this longshot could outperform expectations and contend for a high finish.

2026 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Here are the current odds for some of the top contenders, as provided by FanDuel (subject to change):

Xander Schauffele +1300
Ludvig Åberg +1700
Patrick Cantlay +1900
Cameron Young +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Si Woo Kim +2700

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is currently favored to win the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open?

Xander Schauffele is currently the favorite with +1300 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Which player is the model predicting will underperform?

The model is predicting that Si Woo Kim will stumble and fall well out of the top 5.

Is Brooks Koepka expected to be a contender?

Brooks Koepka is considered a longshot with +6000 odds.

As the tournament approaches, will the data-driven predictions of the SportsLine model prove accurate, or will a dark horse emerge to claim victory at Torrey Pines?