A rush to create protein-added foods is causing a whey powder shortage

Global whey protein prices have hit record highs as consumer demand for protein-enriched foods outpaces supply, according to Ever.Ag Insights. In the U.S., 80% whey protein concentrate is trading at over $13 per pound, a 250% increase from a year ago, driven by health trends and the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.

Why is the cost of whey protein increasing?

Demand for food-grade whey protein is currently outpacing supply, according to Kathleen Wolfley, vice president of Ever.Ag Insights. This shortage is driven by a surge in protein-enriched consumer goods. NielsenIQ reports that the average U.S. supermarket now carries 38,708 products advertising protein content.

Wholesale prices for 80% whey protein concentrate have risen 250% over the last year in the U.S., according to Ever.Ag. Whey protein isolate, a more refined version with at least 90% protein, has increased in price by 150% during the same period.

The trend extends to Europe. DCA Market Intelligence, a Netherlands-based firm, reports that 80% whey protein concentrate reached a record average of 26,450 euros ($30,518) per metric ton in late May, more than double the price from less than a year prior.

Did You Know? According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, every single pound of cheese produced yields nine pounds of whey.

How are weight-loss drugs affecting demand?

The popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss medications, such as Wegovy and Zepbound, has increased demand for whey protein concentrate, according to Wolfley. These drugs suppress appetite, leading users to prioritize nutritionally dense foods to maintain muscle mass and feel full longer.

Whey protein demand fuels supplement shortage

Morgan Stanley estimates that roughly 6% of obese and diabetic patients in the U.S. and 2% worldwide used GLP-1 drugs last year. Other estimates suggest usage could be as high as 12% of the total U.S. adult population.

Food companies are responding by adding protein to a wider array of products, including potato chips, bagels, tortillas, and Starbucks drinks, to attract these consumers.

What is happening with the global supply chain?

U.S. milk consumption has declined for decades, but demand for cheese remains strong, according to Wolfley. While the U.S. previously exported excess whey to China, domestic demand for supplements and additives is now keeping more product within the country.

Vesper, an Amsterdam-based commodity tracker, reports that U.S. exports of whey protein isolate and 80% concentrate to China fell 47% from January through April compared to the previous year. Jasper Endlich, a Vesper dairy analyst, stated that exports have been paused as much as possible because there isn’t enough product for U.S. customers.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter notes that the industry is facing a structural paradox. While cheese production provides the raw material for whey, the shift in consumption from liquid milk to high-protein processed goods creates a volatility that manufacturers cannot quickly resolve through existing production lines.

How are manufacturers responding to higher costs?

Some companies are passing costs to consumers. Now Foods, based in Illinois, raised prices on its whey protein products earlier this year after two years of rising raw ingredient costs, according to sports brand manager Bryan Morin.

Morin stated the company is attempting to absorb further costs by reducing discounts and is considering adding milk protein concentrate—a cheaper alternative with less whey—to its portfolio.

What happens next for protein supplies?

Industry investment may eventually alleviate shortages, though relief is not expected immediately. Glanbia, an Irish company, announced plans in November to increase whey protein isolate production in New Mexico, but this capacity may not be ready until 2027.

Canadian company Agropur announced in February that it intends to expand manufacturing in Wisconsin, South Dakota, Quebec, and Nova Scotia by 2029.

In the short term, Wolfley suggests that higher prices could lead some consumers to stop buying whey protein powders. This reduction in retail demand may potentially reduce shortages at the wholesale level, though she noted the timeline for improvement remains uncertain.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are whey protein prices hitting record highs?
According to Ever.Ag Insights and NielsenIQ, a surge in demand for protein-enriched foods and the use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are outpacing the available supply of food-grade whey.

How has the U.S. export market for whey changed?
U.S. exports of 80% whey protein concentrate and isolate to China fell 47% between January and April compared to the previous year, as more product is kept domestically to meet U.S. demand, according to Vesper.

When will new production capacity be available?
Glanbia plans to increase production in New Mexico by 2027, and Agropur intends to expand manufacturing across several North American plants by 2029.

Do you think higher prices will lead you to switch to alternative protein sources?