Add Carson Benge, bench Kazuma Okamoto and more metrics-based fantasy baseball wisdom

Statcast data through June 10 identifies a significant performance gap among MLB hitters based on Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA). According to Baseball Savant analysis, several moderately rostered players like Carson Benge and Spencer Horwitz are currently in the top third of qualified hitters, while established stars including Manny Machado and Trea Turner show declining expected metrics.

Which moderately rostered hitters are performing best?

Several players with roster rates of 50% or less have produced an xwOBA of at least .350 since May 11. Carson Benge (NYM), rostered in 47% of leagues, holds the 18th-best xwOBA among 120 qualified hitters, posting a .313 xBA and .536 xSLG.

Spencer Horwitz (PIT) is rostered in only 19% of leagues despite being a 70th-percentile hitter with a .322 average and .544 slugging. Trent Grisham (NYY), rostered in 53% of leagues, ranks as the 23rd-best hitter for the period with a .300 average and .481 slugging.

Marcus Semien (NYM), rostered in 43% of leagues, has maintained a .300 average and .518 slugging despite poor actual results. Sam Antonacci (CHW) is a 75th-percentile hitter and is currently rostered in 25% of leagues.

Did You Know? The average xwOBA across the league currently stands at .316.

Which highly rostered players are struggling?

Analysis of hitters rostered in approximately 90% of leagues shows several players falling below the 20th-percentile cut line with an xwOBA under .300. Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) ranks 119th among 120 qualified hitters, recording a .202 xBA.

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Trea Turner (PHI) has an xBA of .239, which exceeds his actual average of .202, though he has recorded 10 steals in this span. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) has posted a .216 xBA and a .342 slugging percentage.

Manny Machado (SD) is described as a potential cut in shallow, weekly leagues. Additionally, Alex Bregman (CHC) is now characterized as a possible 15-HR hitter based on current isolated power numbers.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter notes that hitter splits are less predictive than pitcher splits early in the season. Because pitcher stats like walks and strikeouts stabilize faster, hitters remain more restricted by their skill levels, making expected stats a more reliable gauge of potential than actual results.

Why do expected stats differ from actual results?

Expected stats, specifically xwOBA, aggregate hitting skills into a single metric to remove the volatility of actual outcomes. For example, Marcus Semien has produced “horrible results” recently, yet his expected average remains .300.

The analysis suggests hitters are more “prisoners of their skill level” than pitchers. While pitchers can adjust pitch usage or RPMs to course correct, hitters rely on larger sample sizes for predictive accuracy.

Some players may experience positive regression. Trea Turner’s .239 xBA suggests his actual .202 average is a slump that he is likely to recover from.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is xwOBA and why is it used?
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) is a Statcast/Baseball Savant metric that combines various hitting skills into one measurement to determine how a hitter should be performing regardless of actual luck or results.

Which player has the lowest expected performance among qualified hitters?
Kazuma Okamoto of the Toronto Blue Jays ranks 119th out of 120 qualified hitters, placing him in the first percentile.

How does the performance of Carson Benge compare to other hitters?
Benge has the 18th-best xwOBA for the past month, supported by a .313 xBA and .536 xSLG.

Do you prioritize expected stats or actual results when managing your roster?