Akankah Otoritas Iran Beralih dari Ulama ke Militer?
Iran is transitioning from a traditional theocracy to a military-led power structure dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to analysts Faraj Sarkohi and Damon Golriz, the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader signals a shift where security networks and political calculations now outweigh religious legitimacy.
Why is the IRGC taking over Iran’s governance?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has evolved from a military wing into a dominant economic and political conglomerate. The group now reportedly controls roughly half of Iran’s oil wealth and holds significant stakes in telecommunications, construction, and multi-billion dollar export sectors.
Faraj Sarkohi, a German political analyst and writer, states that the strategic and operational command of the state was officially handed to war headquarters and top generals following the outbreak of war on February 28, 2026. While Sarkohi notes this isn’t a “pure military dictatorship” because it still uses the principle of Wilayatul Faqih (the guardianship of the Islamic jurist), the actual levers of power have shifted.
How does Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment change the system?
The appointment of 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following the death of Ali Khamenei marks a departure from traditional religious qualifications. Damon Golriz, a researcher at The Hague Institute for Geopolitics, argues that Mojtaba’s selection proves that power balances, not religious legitimacy, now dictate Iranian leadership.
Mojtaba has no history of senior religious office or electoral political success. Instead, his power stems from a network built within the IRGC. He joined the corps in 1987, serving in the Batalion Habib Ibn Mazahir under the 27 Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Division during the Iran-Iraq War.
Golriz describes Mojtaba as a “decorative” figure. While he holds the title of leader, the actual governance is executed by the IRGC. This creates a sharp contrast in power: while President Masoud Pezeshkian holds official executive authority, the real decision-making rests with Mojtaba’s security network.
What is the impact of Iran’s economic collapse on political stability?
Economic volatility is eroding the regime’s remaining support. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the Iranian economy will shrink by approximately 6% in 2026, with inflation hitting 68.9%.
This economic pressure is particularly acute for the working class. Golriz notes that roughly 80% of Iranians now express deep rejection of the current system. With a median age under 35, the population is described as a “post-revolutionary society” that didn’t choose this political order.
The social contract further disintegrated following the mass killing of peaceful protesters in January 2026. Sarkohi suggests that the state is now anticipating spontaneous uprisings, as organized movements of teachers, students, and women’s groups remain active.
Will the regime move toward compromise or further repression?
Analysts see two primary paths forward for the military-religious hybrid regime. Sarkohi suggests a scenario where a temporary deal with the United States forces the government to make social concessions—such as relaxing mandatory hijab laws—while maintaining strict political repression of the opposition.
Golriz outlines a more ideal but unlikely scenario: a national dialogue aimed at reconciliation. This would transition Iran from a “revolutionary utopia” into a normal state. However, he admits this is difficult because no single opposition group currently possesses the broad, cohesive support needed to represent the majority.
Comparison: Formal Power vs. Actual Power
| Entity | Formal Role | Actual Influence |
|---|---|---|
| President Pezeshkian | Executive Head of State | Limited operational control |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | Supreme Leader | Ideological umbrella for IRGC |
| IRGC | Military Branch | Economic and political ruler |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Mojtaba Khamenei?
Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of the former Supreme Leader and the current appointee to the position. He is a former IRGC member with deep ties to Iran’s security and intelligence networks.
How much of Iran’s economy does the IRGC control?
According to analysts, the IRGC controls approximately 50% of Iran’s oil wealth and has extensive interests in construction and telecommunications.
What is the current state of inflation in Iran?
The IMF estimates that inflation in Iran will reach 68.9% in 2026, contributing to widespread poverty and social unrest.
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