Bitcoin Price: Exchange Inflows, SOPR Dip Test $90K Resistance

Bitcoin’s advance toward the $90,000 mark has stalled as a surge of coins entered exchanges, coinciding with on-chain data revealing holders have slipped into net loss for the first time since October 2023. This creates a complex market dynamic where increasing supply meets uncertain demand, according to multiple analysis firms.

Exchange Inflows Test $89,000 – $90,000 Resistance

Between January 20th and 21st, over 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges. This contrasts sharply with January’s average daily netflow range of -2,000 to +2,000 BTC. While netflows later normalized to +296 BTC, the accumulated inflows create an oversupply near current levels, positioning the $89,000–$90,000 zone as a key resistance test, noted Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr.

Profitability Declines for Recent Buyers

The Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which gauges whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or loss, has fallen below the breakeven point of 1.0. The seven-day SMA currently stands at 0.996, and at a recent price low near $87,500, the SOPR dropped to 0.965, indicating an average loss of 3.5% for short-term holders.

Expert Insight:

Expert Insight: The decline in the SOPR suggests a weakening conviction among recent Bitcoin purchasers. This shift from profit-taking to loss realization can often precede periods of increased volatility and price consolidation as investors reassess their positions.

Spot Demand Improves, But Remains Light

Data from Glassnode indicates an improvement in the spot market environment. Binance and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) of aggregated exchanges have become buy-dominant, while selling pressure on Coinbase has eased. However, the decrease in overhead supply hasn’t yet met sufficiently strong demand. Aggregated spot CVDs have reached levels last seen in April 2025, a period preceding range expansion, but current inflows remain insufficient to force a breakout.

Holders Enter Net Loss Territory

Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin holders have entered a phase of net realized loss for the first time since October 2023. Since December 23rd, investors have collectively realized approximately 69,000 BTC in losses, signaling a shift away from profit-taking conditions. Realized profit momentum has weakened consistently since the beginning of 2024, recording lower highs in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025.

Annualized realized profits have compressed to around 2.5 million BTC from approximately 4.4 million BTC in October, levels last observed in March 2022. The firm draws parallels to the 2021–2022 transition, when profits peaked before reversing negatively ahead of a bear cycle, describing the pattern as a cautionary signal rather than a prediction.

Did You Know?

Did You Know? The ratio of Bitcoin to gold (BTC/XAU) has been in a strong downtrend for months, a pattern historically requiring significant time to reverse.

Underperformance Against Gold

CryptoQuant also notes that Bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend relative to gold, with the BTC/XAU ratio extending months of decline. Historically, such phases can take time to reverse, suggesting a prolonged period of relative weakness may persist.

What to Watch Next

Key short-term indicators include whether exchange inflows will continue to diminish, if the SOPR can recover above 1.0, and if buy-dominant spot flows remain intact. Stablecoin dynamics may also play a role; analyst Darkfost highlighted that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio has recorded its sharpest decline of the cycle following the recent correction, suggesting Bitcoin’s market capitalization has fallen faster than stablecoin liquidity.

Overall, the data indicates a market balancing excess supply and weakening profit dynamics against early signs of spot stabilization. Until buying conviction strengthens, rallies around $89,000–$90,000 may attract sellers, maintaining high volatility.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the SOPR?

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures whether recent Bitcoin buyers are selling at a profit or loss. A value above 1.0 indicates profit, while a value below 1.0 indicates loss.

What is CVD?

CVD, or Cumulative Volume Delta, is a metric used to assess the flow of volume on exchanges. A buy-dominant CVD suggests more buying pressure, while a sell-dominant CVD indicates more selling pressure.

What does it mean that holders are in a net loss?

It means that, collectively, Bitcoin holders are realizing more losses than profits on their sales, signaling a shift in market sentiment and potentially increased selling pressure.

Given these mixed signals, how do you anticipate market participants will adjust their strategies in the coming weeks?