China has another solution to its shrinking population: robots

Beijing — China’s birth rate has hit a historic low, raising fears of a major economic shock as the labour force shrinks and the population of pension‑drawing retirees swells.

Policy Pushes Have Fallen Short

Authorities have rolled out cash handouts, tax breaks and new marriage rules to spur procreation, yet recent data show the birth‑rate decline continues CNN.

Automation as a Demographic Remedy

President Xi Jinping has long championed the upgrade and automation of manufacturing, a core element of the “Made in China 2025” plan launched in 2015 CNN. The drive now intersects with the urgency to rebalance a population that threatens to strain the pension system, raise health‑care costs and curb productivity.

Did You Know? China is already the world’s largest industrial‑robot market, accounting for more than half of all robots installed worldwide in 2024 CNN.

Potential of Robots and AI

Experts say that sustained gains in labour productivity through robots, digitalisation and AI could allow China to maintain or even increase industrial output with fewer workers on the factory floor, according to Guojun He of the University of Hong Kong.

Automation can “significantly mitigate, but not completely neutralise, the economic impact of a shrinking workforce,” He adds, noting that outcomes will vary across sectors and will need a mix of policies from education to social security.

Humanoid Robots and Elder Care

Beyond factories, Beijing is betting on humanoid robots for elder‑care, with more than 140 companies developing them under government subsidies. State media showcases these robots assisting older adults, aiming to ease the burden on a population that now includes 23 % of citizens over 60 and could exceed half by 2100.

Risks and Workforce Transition

Rapid adoption of AI and robotics could affect up to 70 % of China’s manufacturing workforce, according to domestic estimates. Officials have announced a set of policy measures to address job displacement.

“The timing issue is very important – in the long term, automation is part of the solution to a smaller workforce. In the short‑to‑medium term, if not managed well, it risks displacing workers who do not yet have clear alternative opportunities,” says He.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter, senior business analyst, notes that while automation offers a plausible buffer against labour shortages, the transition will demand massive reskilling and stronger social‑security nets to prevent social and political pressure from rising as workers adjust to new roles.

Complementary Measures

Automation is only one strand of a broader response. The government is also reforming the pension system – the retirement age was raised for the first time in 2024 – and pursuing policies to keep people in formal work longer, according to Philip O’Keefe of UNSW.

Experts stress that the demographic decline will unfold over time, giving China a window to adjust its economy and social structures.

Frequently Asked Questions

What policies has China implemented to boost its birth rate?

China has introduced cash handouts, tax breaks and new marriage‑facilitating rules, but recent data show these measures have not halted the historic decline in births.

How is automation expected to offset the shrinking labour force?

By increasing labour productivity through industrial robots, digitalisation and AI, China aims to maintain or raise output with fewer workers, especially in manufacturing, electric‑vehicle and solar‑panel production.

What are the main challenges of a rapid shift to automation?

The transition could displace a large share of manufacturing workers, requiring extensive reskilling, upskilling and stronger social‑security policies to support those affected.

How will China balance the promise of technology with the social impact of a shrinking workforce?