COVID-19: New Blood Test Predicts Severity & Risk of Death

Six years into the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus SARS-CoV-2 continues to impact global health systems, causing hospitalizations and deaths. Despite advancements in medical understanding, predicting the course of infection – from asymptomatic cases to fatal outcomes – remains a significant challenge.

A New Tool for Prediction

Researchers at the Inserm and Université Paris Cité have developed a new predictive tool, published January 23 in The Journal of Clinical Investigation Insights, that aims to assess a patient’s risk level through a simple blood test. This development comes as the virus continues to actively circulate and cause illness.

Identifying Key Biological Markers

The tool’s foundation lies in the discovery of biological markers associated with increased mortality risk three months after hospitalization for COVID-19 pneumonia, even in cases initially considered mild. The research team, led by Olivia Lenoir and Pierre-Louis Tharaux, analysed blood samples from 196 patients hospitalized across 15 French hospitals.

Analyzing the Data

Within 48 hours of hospitalization, researchers measured 41 immune mediators and markers of renal, endothelial and vascular lesions. Patients were then followed for three months to characterize disease progression. The analysis revealed that age, along with 14 biological markers, correlated with the risk of death within 90 days.

Did You Know? Researchers analysed samples from 196 patients hospitalized with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

The Corimuno-Score

Combining two renal markers and one anti-inflammatory marker with a patient’s age allowed researchers to identify those at highest risk of fatal complications. This led to the creation of the Corimuno-Score, a statistical model incorporating multiple factors to predict disease evolution.

“Numerous studies have already shown the association of certain pro-inflammatory factors with the severity of the disease,” explained Pierre-Louis Tharaux. “But very few have been able to predict mortality or even transfer to intensive care for these patients with initially mild forms as here.”

The Role of Kidney Function

The study highlights the importance of considering the kidneys as “sentinel organs” in COVID-19 pneumonia. The identified markers may also have predictive value in other severe infectious diseases, such as viral pneumonias like influenza, according to Inserm.

Expert Insight: The identification of previously unrecognized markers, particularly those related to kidney function, represents a significant step forward in understanding the complex biological processes underlying severe COVID-19. This could lead to more targeted interventions and improved patient outcomes.

Looking Ahead

This research could potentially refine patient selection for clinical trials, leading to more relevant results. Further investigation is needed to determine if these markers are causal factors in disease deterioration or simply indicators of existing damage. This scoring system could be adapted for use in other severe respiratory illnesses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Corimuno-Score measure?

The Corimuno-Score is a statistical model that combines a patient’s age with two renal markers and one anti-inflammatory marker to predict the risk of death within 90 days of hospitalization for COVID-19 pneumonia.

How many patients were involved in this study?

The study analysed samples from 196 patients hospitalized in 15 hospitals with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

When was this study published?

The study was published on January 23 in The Journal of Clinical Investigation Insights.

As research continues to unravel the complexities of COVID-19, will this new predictive tool lead to more effective and personalized treatment strategies for patients at risk?