Cuba Is Collapsing. Will Trump Invade?

Cuba is facing a severe economic and energy collapse characterized by widespread power outages and fuel shortages, according to CNN’s Patrick Oppmann. The crisis accelerated following the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, which halted critical Venezuelan oil shipments to the island.

Why is Cuba experiencing a systemic economic collapse?

Basic government services have largely ceased, according to Patrick Oppmann, the CNN bureau chief in Havana. Gasoline prices have reached approximately $9 per liter on the black market, making fuel nearly unobtainable for most citizens.

Oppmann reports that the banking system has effectively vanished due to targeted sanctions. He observed children rooting through garbage for food and adults begging in the streets, conditions he says were not present in previous years.

The island’s power grid is failing. Oppmann states that power is now off more often than it is on, with some towns outside Havana losing electricity for two to three days at a time.

Did You Know? 32 Cuban soldiers and intelligence officials were killed during the U.S. raid to apprehend Nicolás Maduro in January 2026.

How did the U.S. intervention in Venezuela trigger the crisis?

The seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 ended a critical agreement where Cuba provided medical personnel and intelligence officials in exchange for billions of dollars in oil. Oppmann describes these shipments as the lifeblood of the Cuban economy.

The loss of Venezuelan oil has left the government unable to power Soviet-era plants or provide fuel. Oppmann notes that the Cuban government failed to diversify into solar or wind energy, relying instead on the improbable stability of the Venezuelan deal.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also pressured Mexico to stop sending aid. According to Oppmann, Mexico’s economy is heavily dependent on the U.S., making it easier for Rubio to discourage oil shipments to Havana.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter suggests the “slow squeeze” strategy creates a high-stakes gamble for the regime. By waiting for aging infrastructure to fail completely, the U.S. could trigger a domestic collapse without the immediate political cost of a full-scale invasion.

Will the United States invade Cuba?

President Trump has suggested the possibility of placing an aircraft carrier off the coast as a show of force, according to David Frum. The Cuban government is preparing for a “war of the entire populace,” which involves arming citizens with aging Soviet weaponry.

Oppmann reports seeing videos of provincial military actions where anti-aircraft weapons are pulled by oxen. He describes the Cuban military as having fallen on hard times, contrasting its current state with its former regional strength.

A full military intervention could lead to the outright collapse of Cuban society. However, a “slow squeeze” is considered more likely, as the administration may wait for the total failure of the energy grid to force a change in leadership.

How does the Iran deal impact J.D. Vance’s political future?

Vice President J.D. Vance may be positioned as the primary face of a new agreement between the U.S. and Iran, according to David Frum. Vance has previously established himself as a loyal supporter of Trump but a skeptic of the Iran war.

Frum states that administration rivals may be pushing Vance to defend the deal to move him out of a politically “sweet spot.” This could force Vance to defend controversial terms, such as reports of a massive reconstruction fund for Iran.

The political stakes are high as Trump’s approval ratings sit in the mid-to-upper 30s. Frum suggests that Vance’s ability to navigate the fallout of the Iran war could determine his viability for the 2028 presidential election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the current fuel shortage in Cuba?
The shortage was triggered by the cessation of Venezuelan oil shipments following the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026.

What is the current state of law and order in Havana?
Patrick Oppmann reports a breakdown in society, including an epidemic of gasoline theft and a police force that is often unable or unwilling to perform its duties due to extreme poverty.

What are the Trump administration’s demands for Cuba?
The administration is demanding a full economic opening and the restoration of full property ownership for Cuban Americans wishing to reinvest in the island.

Do you believe a “slow squeeze” strategy is more effective than direct military intervention in resolving regime conflicts?