Don’t fear One Nation’s success, fear what might come next
The rise of the One Nation party is causing significant concern among Australia’s political class, with observers warning that attempts to suppress the movement could lead to the emergence of more radical political forces. Following One Nation’s recent victory in the Farrer byelection, analysts and media figures have debated the implications of the party’s growing influence on the Australian parliamentary landscape.
Did You Know? One Nation MP Jason Virgo, who won the seat of MacKillop in the South Australian House of Assembly, notably addressed his identity as an openly gay man and his relationship with an immigrant partner during his maiden speech to Parliament.
The Debate Over Political Legitimacy
The victory of One Nation in the Farrer byelection has sparked a national conversation regarding the “permission structure” of Australian politics. ABC commentator Patricia Karvelas suggested that winning a Lower House seat serves to “normalise” the party, potentially providing it with a level of legitimacy that could assist in future electoral efforts.
In response to these concerns, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson stated that the decision of who is worthy of representing the Australian people rests solely with the voters, rather than with academics, lobbyists, or political rivals. Supporters of the movement argue that voters are increasingly turning to the party as a reaction against the current political establishment.
Shifting Dynamics and the Role of Minor Parties
The entry of figures like Jason Virgo into state parliament marks a shift in the traditional perception of One Nation. While the party has historically been associated with strict stances on migration, Virgo has explicitly stated his support for migrants while simultaneously expressing concerns regarding current national migration levels and infrastructure capacity.
Meanwhile, there is ongoing discussion about the potential formalization of “Teal” independents into a political party. Critics, including those skeptical of their funding sources, argue that such a move is partly motivated by a desire to counter the electoral success of One Nation. The Australian Electoral Commission has previously investigated the organizational structure of these independents, though they were not officially classified as a party at that time.
Lessons from International Trends
Political analysts often look to the United Kingdom to understand the potential trajectory of populist movements. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has gained significant momentum, drawing support from voters dissatisfied with the established Labour government. The UK landscape also features parties like Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, which appeal to voters who feel that even populist alternatives like Farage’s do not sufficiently address their concerns regarding culture and immigration.
Expert Insight: The historical precedent of European and British populist movements suggests that when established political parties attempt to isolate or block emerging movements, they risk creating a political vacuum. If voters feel their concerns—such as infrastructure pressure or immigration levels—are being ignored by the “lanyard class,” they may shift their support toward increasingly radicalized alternatives that operate outside traditional consensus.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the political establishment concerned about One Nation?
According to reports, the political class is concerned that One Nation’s electoral successes, such as the win in the Farrer byelection, provide the party with a sense of legitimacy that could lead to further growth in other electorates.
What is the significance of Jason Virgo’s role in One Nation?
Virgo is viewed as a sign of change within the party. As an openly gay MP with an immigrant partner, his presence challenges long-held stereotypes about the party’s demographic and ideological composition.
How does the situation in the UK relate to Australian politics?
The UK serves as a potential case study for what happens when a political movement is suppressed or when voters feel unrepresented. Analysts point to the rise of Reform UK and more radical groups like Restore Britain as evidence that blocking populist movements can lead to the rise of more extreme alternatives.
Could the current political strategy of blocking minor parties ultimately result in a more fragmented and radicalized parliament?