Fears of nuclear arms race rise as US-Russia treaty expires

The last remaining nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia expired on Thursday, February 5, 2026, raising concerns about a renewed nuclear arms race. This marks the first time in decades that the two largest nuclear powers are operating without limits on their arsenals.

A Landmark Treaty Expires

The New START treaty, which originally went into effect in February 2011, capped both the US and Russia at 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads. It also limited them to 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons, as well as 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers. The treaty was extended in 2021 for five years, concluding on February 4, 2026.

Did You Know? The treaty limited Russian intercontinental nuclear weapons that could reach the US.

Shifting Perspectives and Concerns

While the treaty placed constraints on both nations, some argue that its limitations were outdated, particularly as China continues to expand its nuclear arsenal. According to a 2022 Pentagon report, China could possess approximately 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if its current expansion pace continues. President Donald Trump previously voiced concerns about the treaty’s exclusion of China.

The expiration has prompted varied reactions. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed extending the treaty for another year last September, a suggestion Trump initially found agreeable. However, Trump has since expressed less concern about the treaty’s lapse, stating, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll do a better agreement.”

Potential Paths Forward

Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the US would not agree to maintain the treaty’s limits, citing Trump’s call for a nuclear deal involving the US, Russia, and China. However, Beijing has consistently rejected the idea of trilateral negotiations. Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated on Wednesday that they had received no response from the Trump administration and expressed regret over the lack of engagement.

Expert Insight: The expiration of New START introduces a period of uncertainty and potential instability. Without agreed-upon limits, the risk of miscalculation and escalation increases, potentially leading to a costly and dangerous arms race between major global powers.

Experts are divided on the best course of action. Some believe maintaining limits, even temporarily, is crucial. Others argue that a new agreement must include China to be effective. Paul Dean, a former assistant secretary of state, emphasized the benefits of predictability and transparency in understanding Russia’s nuclear programme. Conversely, Matthew Kroenig, of the Atlantic Council, believes the US should not be bound by limitations in light of China’s growing nuclear capabilities.

Rose Gottemoeller, a former chief US negotiator for New START, warned of a potential scenario where Russia rapidly uploads additional warheads, potentially outpacing both the US and China. She suggested a one-year extension could provide the US with time to prepare.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the New START treaty?

The New START treaty, in effect until February 4, 2026, capped both the US and Russia at 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 deployed missiles and bombers, and 800 launchers.

Why did the treaty expire?

The agreement was not eligible for further extension, and despite previous discussions, the US and Russia did not reach an agreement to continue adhering to its limits.

What is China’s role in this situation?

The US has called for China to be included in future arms control talks, but China has consistently refused to engage in negotiations that would limit its nuclear arsenal.

As the world enters a new era without the constraints of New START, what impact will this have on global security and the future of arms control?