Finland’s Stubb says EU should expand to 40 states, including Canada

The Great Expansion: Why Europe is Rethinking Its Geopolitical Borders

The European Union stands at a pivotal crossroads. As global power dynamics shift and the influence of traditional superpowers fluctuates, the bloc is facing a fundamental question: Should it remain a closed club or evolve into a massive, 40-state powerhouse? Finnish President Alexander Stubb recently ignited this debate, suggesting that if Europe wants to remain relevant in a volatile world, it must think bigger—and faster.

Strategic Autonomy: Size Matters in Global Politics

For decades, the EU has focused on internal stability and economic integration. However, the current climate—defined by the war in Ukraine and shifting U.S. Foreign policy—has forced a change in perspective. Stubb argues that “European strategic autonomy” is effectively a game of scale. By expanding its footprint, the bloc could better insulate itself from the whims of external powers.

The list of potential candidates mentioned by various European leaders is ambitious: from the U.K. And Norway to Turkey and even Canada. While the prospect of Canada joining an European alliance sounds unconventional, it highlights the growing desire among “middle powers” to align more closely against the dominance of larger, more aggressive geopolitical entities.

The Turkey Paradox and the Balkan Hotspot

No discussion on EU enlargement is complete without addressing the “elephant in the room”: Turkey. Once a frontrunner for accession, Turkey has drifted from the conversation in recent years. Yet, from a security and migration management perspective, experts argue that keeping Ankara at arm’s length may be a strategic blunder.

Similarly, the Western Balkans remain a high-stakes region. Countries like Albania, Montenegro, and Serbia are currently navigating the complex requirements for entry. The EU enlargement process is notoriously rigorous, requiring candidates to align their legal, economic, and democratic standards with the bloc’s core values.

Is a ‘Flexible’ Union the Future?

The traditional “all-or-nothing” approach to EU membership may no longer be sustainable. Stubb and other policymakers are floating the idea of “flexible memberships.” This could allow countries like Norway or the U.K. To integrate deeply into the European single market and security framework without necessarily adopting every single Brussels regulation.

This tiered approach could be the key to bringing in reluctant nations that value their sovereignty but recognize the undeniable economic and security benefits of being part of the European project.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What are the main requirements for joining the EU? Candidates must meet the “Copenhagen criteria,” which include stable democratic institutions, a functioning market economy, and the ability to implement all EU laws.
• Can a country leave the EU once it joins? Yes. The U.K. Set a legal precedent with Brexit in 2020, proving that while joining is a complex, multi-year process, exiting is equally—if not more—complicated.
• Why would Canada be considered for an European alliance? Canada shares strong democratic values and trade ties with Europe. In a world where trade blocs are becoming more polarized, some suggest a formal partnership could help Canada diversify its economy away from an over-reliance on the U.S. Market.

Join the Conversation

The map of Europe is not set in stone. As economic pressures and security threats evolve, the definition of “European” will continue to be debated. Do you believe the EU should prioritize expansion to 40 states, or would that dilute the bloc’s internal cohesion? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for deep-dive analysis on global trade and geopolitics.