Forecasters warn 16 UK counties to be hit by two-day blizzard – full list
The UK is bracing for a potential two-day blizzard, with forecasts predicting significant snowfall across 16 counties starting next week. While winter weather is hardly unexpected in February, the intensity of this predicted system – potentially delivering up to 10cm of settled snow in some areas, and even double that in Scotland – warrants a closer look at the evolving patterns of UK weather and the increasing frequency of disruptive snow events.
The Approaching Blizzard: What We Know
According to WXCharts, the heaviest snow is expected on Monday, February 16th, and Tuesday, February 17th. The system is driven by a collision of cold air moving south and a band of rain travelling east across the country. Initial snowfall is anticipated around midnight on Monday, impacting areas like Suffolk, Norfolk, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire, and the North East. The precipitation will then shift, leaving significant accumulations over Cumbria, Northumberland, Lancashire, North Yorkshire, and much of Scotland.
Weather map for Monday, February 16 at 12am -Credit:WXCHARTS
Beyond This Week: The Changing Face of UK Winter Weather
While individual weather events are difficult to attribute directly to climate change, the broader trend suggests an increase in extreme weather occurrences, including more intense snowfall in certain regions. The UK’s position on the edge of the polar jet stream makes it particularly vulnerable to these shifts. A weakening or meandering jet stream can allow colder Arctic air to plunge further south, increasing the likelihood of significant snow events.
Recent years have seen several notable disruptive snowstorms. The “Beast from the East” in 2018 brought widespread chaos, and similar, albeit less severe, events have occurred in 2021 and 2023. Data from the Met Office shows a statistically significant increase in days with heavy snowfall in parts of Scotland and Northern England over the past three decades. This isn’t necessarily a blanket increase across the entire UK; some areas may experience fewer snow days but when snow *does* fall, it’s often more intense.
Weather map for Tuesday, February 17 at 6pm -Credit:WXCHARTS
The Role of Sea Surface Temperatures
Beyond atmospheric patterns, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a crucial role. Warmer-than-average SSTs in the Atlantic can contribute to increased moisture in the air, leading to heavier precipitation – and when temperatures are cold enough, that precipitation falls as snow. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a climate pattern that influences weather in Europe and North America, is also a key factor. A negative NAO index often correlates with colder winters and increased snowfall in the UK.
Preparing for a More Variable Winter
The long-range forecast from the Met Office emphasizes a continuation of cyclonic patterns, suggesting broadly unsettled weather with further spells of rain and potentially strong winds. However, the possibility of colder conditions establishing themselves, bringing snow primarily to the north and northeast, remains. This highlights the need for increased preparedness.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about local weather warnings from the Met Office and be prepared to adjust travel plans if necessary. Ensure your home is adequately insulated and that you have a supply of essential items in case of prolonged disruption.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Will this blizzard be as bad as the “Beast from the East”? While significant, current forecasts suggest this event is unlikely to reach the intensity of the 2018 blizzard, but disruption is still possible.
- What is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)? The NAO is a climate pattern that affects weather in Europe and North America. A negative NAO often means colder winters for the UK.
- Is climate change causing more snow? Climate change is complex. While overall temperatures are rising, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially leading to heavier snowfall when conditions are cold enough.
Did you know? Black ice, a thin, transparent layer of ice, is particularly dangerous as it’s often difficult to see. Be extra cautious when walking or driving in cold conditions.
The UK’s winter weather is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Staying informed, preparing for potential disruptions, and understanding the broader climate trends are crucial for navigating these changing conditions. For more in-depth information on winter weather preparedness, visit the Met Office website.
What are your preparations for the upcoming snow? Share your tips in the comments below!