Gaza death toll in early part of war far higher than reported, says Lancet study

A new study published in the Lancet medical journal estimates that over 75,000 people have been killed in Gaza during the first 16 months of the ongoing conflict, a figure significantly higher – by at least 25,000 – than previously reported by local authorities.

A Revised Death Toll

The research, conducted by a team of experts including an economist, demographer, epidemiologist, and survey specialists, analysed data collected through a survey of 2,000 families in Gaza. This survey aimed to provide a representative sample of the population and gather detailed information on deaths within families.

Did You Know? The study found that the Gaza health ministry’s reporting on the proportion of women, children, and elderly people among those killed was accurate.

Between October 7, 2023 – the date of the Hamas attack on Israel – and January 5, 2025, approximately 42,200 women, children, and elderly people died, representing 56% of all violent deaths in Gaza during that period. The study estimates that 3-4% of the Gaza Strip’s population has been violently killed.

Indirect Deaths and Humanitarian Impact

Researchers also identified approximately 8,200 deaths attributable to indirect effects of the conflict, such as malnutrition and untreated disease. This figure is lower than some previous estimates, including a Lancet study from 2024 that suggested a ratio of four “indirect” deaths for every “direct” death.

Expert Insight: Determining the true cost of conflict, both in terms of direct and indirect casualties, is an inherently complex undertaking. The variation in estimates highlights the challenges of data collection in active conflict zones and the need for rigorous methodologies.

The Hamas raid on Israel on October 2023 resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, mostly civilians, and the abduction of 250 people. Israel responded with a large-scale offensive that has devastated much of Gaza.

Shifting Assessments and Future Outlook

The accuracy of previous death toll figures has been a point of contention. However, a senior Israeli security officer recently stated that figures compiled by Gaza health authorities were “broadly accurate,” a shift from previous official criticisms. The officer reported approximately 70,000 Palestinian deaths since October 2023, excluding those missing.

Gaza health authorities currently report over 71,660 deaths from Israeli attacks, with more than 570 deaths occurring since the implementation of a ceasefire in October 2025. Reaching a definitive and comprehensive accounting of all deaths is expected to be a lengthy and resource-intensive process, and may never be fully achieved.

Frequently Asked Questions

What period does this study cover?

The study examines deaths in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025.

What proportion of deaths were among vulnerable populations?

Approximately 42,200 women, children, and elderly people died during the study period, representing 56% of all violent deaths in Gaza.

Were indirect deaths considered in the study?

Yes, the study estimates around 8,200 deaths were attributable to indirect effects of the conflict, such as malnutrition or untreated disease.

As investigations continue and the situation evolves, will a truly complete understanding of the human cost of this conflict ever be possible?

Gaza death toll in early part of war far higher than reported, says Lancet study | Gaza