How Balochistan attacks threaten Pakistan’s promises to China, Trump

Islamabad, Pakistan – A display of minerals presented to United States President Donald Trump in September by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signaled Pakistan’s willingness to open its mineral resources to US investment. However, less than five months later, recent violence casts a shadow over that prospect.

Escalating Violence in Balochistan

The majority of Pakistan’s richest mineral deposits are located in Balochistan, the country’s largest and most impoverished province. On Saturday, coordinated attacks across Balochistan resulted in the deaths of 31 civilians and 17 security personnel, while the military killed 145 fighters. This serves as a stark reminder of the challenges facing Pakistan – and potential investors – in the region.

Did You Know? Balochistan has witnessed at least five major rebellions since being annexed by Pakistan in 1948.

Balochistan is also central to China’s investments in Pakistan, making the recent attacks particularly sensitive for Islamabad. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi blamed neighboring India for the attacks, stating, “These were not normal terrorists. India is behind these attacks. I can tell you for sure that India planned these attacks along with these terrorists,” though no evidence was provided.

The Baloch Liberation Army

The attacks were claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist group seeking independence for Balochistan and having waged a decades-long insurgency against the Pakistani state. BLA leader Bashir Zeb announced the attacks as part of the group’s “Herof 2.0” operation, following a similar assault in August 2024. India rejected Pakistan’s allegations, attributing them to an attempt to divert attention from “internal failings.”

Roots of the Unrest

Balochistan, home to approximately 15 million of Pakistan’s 240 million people according to the 2023 census, is the country’s poorest province despite its wealth of natural resources, including oil, coal, gold, copper, and gas. Concerns exist that escalating violence could jeopardize billions of dollars in potential investment and threaten Pakistan’s economic recovery.

Expert Insight: The situation in Balochistan highlights a core contradiction: Pakistan is attempting to attract international investment by showcasing the province’s resources while simultaneously failing to address the underlying political grievances of the local population.

The province’s history includes a separatist movement almost since its annexation by Pakistan in 1948. The government’s response has often involved heavy-handed security operations, leading to accusations from human rights groups of killings and forced disappearances of ethnic Balochs. In March, BLA fighters attempted to hijack the Jaffer Express train, resulting in the deaths of at least 33 fighters and the rescue of over 300 passengers.

Economic and Geopolitical Stakes

According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, Balochistan experienced at least 254 attacks in 2025, a 26 percent increase from the previous year, resulting in over 400 deaths. Pakistan’s economy, which narrowly avoided default in the summer of 2023, secured a $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. However, foreign direct investment has weakened, with just $808 million received in the first half of the fiscal year 2026, down from $1.425 billion in the same period last year.

China has heavily invested in Balochistan, particularly in the development of Gwadar port, a key component of the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In September, a US-based mining firm, USSM, signed a $500 million memorandum of understanding to invest in mineral excavation in Pakistan.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Baloch Liberation Army?

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is a separatist group that has long sought independence for Balochistan and has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Pakistani state.

What resources are found in Balochistan?

Balochistan holds significant reserves of oil, coal, gold, copper, and gas.

What was Pakistan’s response to the recent attacks?

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi blamed neighboring India for the attacks, claiming India planned them alongside terrorists, though no evidence was offered.

As Pakistan seeks to attract investment from both the US and China, the ongoing instability in Balochistan presents a significant challenge. Will Pakistan be able to address the underlying grievances fueling the conflict while simultaneously securing the necessary investment to bolster its economy?

How Balochistan attacks threaten Pakistan’s promises to China, Trump | Conflict News