Impacts of climate change on dengue
Climate warming is expanding the dengue burden in the Americas and Asia, according to research by Childs et al. (2025). Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are enabling mosquito vectors to move into new territories and increasing the frequency of outbreaks in these regions.
Why is the dengue burden increasing in the Americas and Asia?
Extreme precipitation, worsened by anthropogenic climate change, drove a record-breaking dengue outbreak in Peru in 2023, according to Harris et al. (2026). This demonstrates how specific climatic events can trigger massive spikes in disease incidence.
In Brazil, the risk of dengue increases when urbanization combines with hydrometeorological hazards, according to Lowe et al. (2021). The intersection of city growth and weather extremes creates ideal conditions for transmission.
The spread is fundamentally tied to the thermal biology of mosquito-borne diseases. Mordecai et al. (2019) explain that temperature directly influences the biological processes that allow these diseases to propagate.
How do climate factors change mosquito behavior?
Mosquito vector ranges are undergoing widespread expansions, according to a scoping review by Lyberger et al. (2025). This shift allows mosquitoes to inhabit areas where they were previously unable to survive.
Temperature impacts are not uniform. Kirk et al. (2024) report that the effects of temperature on dengue incidence are nonlinear and are mediated by both climatic and socioeconomic factors.
What other vector-borne diseases are shifting?
Dengue is not the only disease moving. Siraj et al. (2014) observed altitudinal changes in malaria incidence, specifically in the highlands of Colombia and Ethiopia.
Other vectors are also responding to warming. Ogden et al. (2014) estimated that projected climate change affects the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis.
The timing of transmission is also changing. Fay et al. (2026) indicate that the transmission season length for the West Nile virus is being impacted by climate change.
What may happen next?
Vector ranges could continue to shift as global temperatures rise. This is likely to expand the geographic footprint of diseases like dengue and malaria into previously unaffected highlands or temperate zones.
Outbreaks may become more frequent following extreme climatic events. Based on the patterns seen in Peru and Brazil, future hydrometeorological hazards could potentially trigger similar record-breaking disease spikes in other urbanized regions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the 2023 dengue outbreak in Peru?
According to Harris et al. (2026), the outbreak was driven by extreme precipitation that was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change.
Does temperature affect all mosquito-borne diseases the same way?
No. While temperature is a key driver, Kirk et al. (2024) state that temperature impacts on dengue are nonlinear and influenced by socioeconomic factors.
Are diseases moving to higher altitudes?
Yes. Siraj et al. (2014) documented altitudinal changes in malaria incidence within the highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia.
How should local communities prepare for the arrival of new disease vectors?