iPhone 18 Pro Price May Be Lower Than Previously Expected
J.P. Morgan analysts predict the iPhone 18 Pro will cost approximately €1,399, contradicting earlier TechInsights projections that suggested a price as high as €1,650. Apple intends to mitigate rising costs by replacing Qualcomm 5G modems with in-house hardware to offset surging DRAM and Flash memory expenses between 2025 and 2027.
Why are iPhone 18 Pro price predictions conflicting?
Different analyst firms are reporting divergent views on Apple’s future pricing strategy. TechInsights previously calculated that the entry-level iPhone 18 Pro could reach €1,650, a significant jump from the iPhone 17 Pro’s €1,299 starting price in the Apple Store.
However, a recent analysis from J.P. Morgan suggests a more moderate increase. According to J.P. Morgan, Apple is implementing cost-saving measures that will keep the price hike for the base model between $50 and $100. This puts the projected cost of a 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro at roughly €1,399.
How is Apple reducing production costs for the iPhone 19 Pro?
Apple is shifting its supply chain to reduce reliance on third-party vendors. The primary strategy involves replacing Qualcomm modems with a proprietary 5G modem. J.P. Morgan reports that this shift, among other component savings, will drive down non-memory production costs.
The data shows a downward trend in these specific costs: the iPhone 18 Pro’s non-memory production cost is expected to drop from $449 to $426. For the iPhone 19 Pro, analysts expect that figure to fall further to $384.
Projected Production Cost Shifts
| Model | Non-Memory Cost | Key Change |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone 18 Pro | $426 | Modem transition |
| iPhone 19 Pro | $384 | Further optimization |
What is driving the increase in manufacturing costs?
The primary financial pressure comes from memory components. According to J.P. Morgan, the combined cost of DRAM and Flash storage for an iPhone is projected to climb from $65 in 2025 to $228 by 2027.
This steep increase is why Apple must find savings elsewhere to maintain its profit margins. Without the move to in-house modems and other component reductions, the retail price would likely mirror the higher estimates provided by TechInsights.
What happens next for Apple’s hardware strategy?
The transition to an in-house 5G modem is a move toward vertical integration, similar to Apple’s shift from Intel to M-series chips for the Mac. By owning the modem technology, Apple eliminates the licensing fees paid to Qualcomm and gains tighter control over power efficiency and integration.
J.P. Morgan expects total production costs to rise by only $26 this year and another $56 next year. This suggests that Apple’s internal engineering is successfully neutralizing the volatility of the global memory market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost €1,600?
While TechInsights suggested a price of €1,650, J.P. Morgan analysts believe it will be closer to €1,399 due to production savings.
Why is the price increasing at all?
The cost of DRAM and Flash memory is expected to rise significantly between 2025 and 2027, according to J.P. Morgan.
What is the “Apple Modem”?
It is a proprietary 5G modem developed by Apple to replace the Qualcomm modems currently used in the Pro series.
Do you think a €1,399 starting price is fair for the iPhone 18 Pro, or is Apple pushing the limit? Let us know in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for the latest hardware leaks.