Iran Protests: Legitimacy Crisis & Escalating Unrest 2024
Iran witnessed its most extensive and sustained period of unrest in January since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with protests erupting across the country and met with a forceful response from authorities. Experts participating in an Iran International Insight town hall on Wednesday indicated this crackdown reflects a growing crisis of legitimacy at the heart of the Iranian state.
A Deepening Crisis of Legitimacy
The scale and persistence of the protests, coupled with their decentralized nature, signal a fundamental break between the government and Iranian society. Participants at the town hall suggested that traditional methods of repression may no longer be sufficient to contain the unrest. Tens of thousands have reportedly been impacted by the security response, with individuals killed, detained, or interrogated.
Erosion of the Social Contract
Political scientist Mohammad Ghaedi explained that each cycle of protest exacerbates a “structural legitimacy deficit.” He contrasted this with democracies, where leaders derive legitimacy from election by the populace. According to Ghaedi, when Iranians are asked why their leaders should rule, there is no clear answer, tracing the issue back to what he described as a deception of the nation by Ayatollah Khomeini 47 years ago.
Ghaedi asserted that the leadership is acutely aware of this vulnerability and feels compelled to respond with force to discourage future protests. Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, a senior Iran analyst and Head of Digital at Iran International, noted a fundamental shift in the protest landscape.
From Mega-Triggers to Minor Triggers
Sharafedin stated that Iranian society has moved from protests sparked by “mega-triggers” to those ignited by “minor triggers.” These smaller triggers, he explained, are more difficult for the government to control due to their unpredictable and emotionally charged nature. Grievances are now widespread across economic, social, and political spheres, leading to recurring localized unrest.
Sharafedin framed the current crisis around three key actors: Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump, and the Iranian public. He argued that the “social contract between Khamenei and the people has expired,” presenting two potential scenarios: a deal between Khamenei and Trump at the expense of the Iranian people, or Trump siding with the people against the Islamic Republic – both resulting in a loss for Khamenei.
Economic Hardship and Ideological Rejection
Mohammad Machine-Chian, a senior journalist at Iran International, highlighted the role of both economic distress and ideological rejection in fueling the unrest. He argued that simply demanding a “normal material life” constitutes a rejection of Khomeinism, which prioritizes sacrifice for the state over material well-being.
He cited alarming inflation rates, with overall inflation nearing 60% and food inflation around 72%. Further details revealed cooking oil prices have risen by approximately 200% and red meat by over 100%. The regime’s traditional sources of legitimacy – the bazaar and the mosques – are also weakening, with the bazaar distancing itself from the government and mosques now being used as detention centres.
Panelists also observed a significant psychological shift, noting that seeking foreign assistance, once taboo, is now openly discussed within Iranian society. Concerns were raised during audience questions regarding potential regional escalation involving Turkey and the weakening of Tehran’s regional proxy network.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is driving the current unrest in Iran?
The unrest is driven by a combination of factors, including economic hardship, ideological rejection of the Islamic Republic, and a perceived lack of legitimacy within the government, according to panelists.
How has the nature of protests in Iran changed?
Protests have shifted from being triggered by large-scale events to being sparked by smaller, more unpredictable incidents, making them more difficult for the government to contain.
What role do external actors play in the current situation?
The crisis is framed around three actors: Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump, and the Iranian public, with the potential for interaction between them influencing the outcome.
As the Islamic Republic faces converging pressures – eroded legitimacy, weakened institutions, economic deterioration, and a society increasingly detached from its ideological foundations – repression may only offer a temporary reprieve, failing to restore authority or rebuild public consent.