Iran says mooted peace deal with US will not be signed on Sunday – The Irish Times
The United States and Iran are nearing a formal agreement to end hostilities, with senior officials from both nations signaling that a final text is ready for signature. While a senior US official confirmed the agreement on the document, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned that the precise timing remains fluid. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated the deal is closer than “ever before,” with expectations for an electronic signing to initiate a de-escalation of the conflict.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz central to the negotiations?
The proposed “Islamabad memorandum” centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the strait is a vital artery that previously accounted for one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies. While the US seeks to restore commercial transit, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Iran and Oman intend to retain control over maritime traffic. Despite ongoing talks, US Central Command confirmed that US forces recently intercepted Iranian drones near the waterway, underscoring the volatility of the region even as diplomatic efforts progress.
How do the competing claims of victory shape the deal?
The narrative of the conflict’s outcome varies sharply between the parties involved. Minister Araqchi asserted on state television that “Iran is the winner of the war,” suggesting the tentative agreement validates Tehran’s strategic position. Conversely, the US administration has focused on the reopening of the strait as a primary objective. This divergence mirrors historical negotiations where both sides often claim domestic political victories to justify concessions. Critics, including President Donald Trump, have challenged the accuracy of reported terms, arguing that the proposal may offer Tehran excessive advantages.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important “chokepoints” for energy. Before the conflict, approximately 21 million barrels of oil passed through the narrow passage daily, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
What is Israel’s role in the potential ceasefire?
Israel remains a significant outlier in the current diplomatic framework. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu explicitly stated that Israel will not be a party to the agreement. Tensions have risen between Washington and Jerusalem, specifically regarding US pressure to curb Israeli military operations in Lebanon. While Araqchi claimed the memorandum would end the war in Lebanon and require an Israeli withdrawal, Israel’s defense officials have publicly rejected those terms, maintaining that the country will retain its freedom to act against perceived threats regardless of the US-Iran deal.
How will this impact global energy markets?
Markets have responded to the prospect of a de-escalation in the Gulf with immediate shifts in commodity pricing. Following reports of the impending memorandum, Brent crude prices fell by more than 3 percent, reaching their lowest levels in nearly two months. Investors view the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a stabilizing factor for global energy supplies. However, the persistence of technical-level disputes and the ongoing exchange of fire between Israeli and Iranian forces suggest that market volatility could return if the signing is delayed further.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is the deal officially signed? No. While a text has been agreed upon, both sides have expressed caution regarding the exact date of the signing.
- Will Israel join the agreement? No. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that Israel is not part of these negotiations and will not be bound by the terms.
- What happens to the nuclear program? According to reports, negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program are scheduled to take place only after the current memorandum is finalized.
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As the situation in the Gulf evolves, we will continue to track the developments of the Islamabad memorandum and its impact on regional security. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for the latest updates on global affairs and energy market analysis.
