ISSI seminar discusses future trajectory of Pakistan-India relations
Diplomats, academics, and policy experts gathered at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) on June 16 to assess the current trajectory of Pakistan–India relations. Speakers at the seminar, titled “Decoding the Future Trajectory of Pakistan–India Relations,” identified significant structural barriers to peace, including the unresolved Jammu and Kashmir dispute, nuclear tensions, and emerging conflicts over water-sharing mechanisms.
Current State of Bilateral Relations
Ambassador Khalid Mahmood, Chairman of the ISSI, characterized the history of Pakistan-India relations as a cycle of confrontation and reconciliation. According to Ambassador Mahmood, while India previously attempted to isolate Pakistan globally, those efforts have backfired, leading some within the Indian policy elite to reconsider their strategy. However, he cautioned that India’s military leadership continues to employ a threatening tone, suggesting that Islamabad should approach potential engagement with caution rather than optimism.
Dr. Khurram Abbas, Director of the Centre for Strategic Perspectives at ISSI, described the current era as the most difficult in the history of bilateral ties. He noted that even long-standing, settled issues such as water-sharing have become flashpoints for mutual hostility. This shift, according to Dr. Abbas, impacts security and stability across South Asia.
According to a World Bank study cited during the seminar, Pakistan could potentially increase its overall exports by 80 percent if it successfully normalized trade relations with India, representing an estimated $38 billion opportunity.
Obstacles to Constructive Engagement
Former High Commissioner to India, Ambassador Abdul Basit, expressed skepticism regarding recent calls for dialogue. He argued that there is currently a lack of viable ideas to break the existing stalemate. Ambassador Basit emphasized that any future Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) would only be effective if they are tied to a formal mechanism addressing core disputes, specifically Jammu and Kashmir.
The economic cost of the current deadlock remains a primary concern for policymakers. Dr. Manzoor Ahmed, a former Ambassador to the World Trade Organization, highlighted that the ban on direct trade forces Pakistan to utilize expensive indirect routes for Indian products. He advocated for the decoupling of trade relations from broader political disputes to mitigate the impact on Pakistan’s import bill.
The reliance on indirect trade routes and the suspension of direct engagement indicates that both nations are currently prioritizing national identity narratives over economic integration. The structural nature of the Kashmir dispute and the weaponization of the Indus Waters Treaty suggest that any near-term diplomatic breakthrough faces high barriers, as neither state appears willing to concede on core identity-based claims.
Future Outlook and Strategic Leverage
Chief guest and former Foreign Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan suggested that Pakistan has gained new diplomatic leverage in recent months. He identified three specific strengths: goodwill from the United States, international legitimacy, and an improved capacity to conduct complex diplomacy. He urged policymakers to utilize these assets when navigating future relations with New Delhi.
Analysts at the seminar remained cautious about the potential for long-term peace. Dr. Mujeeb Afzal of Quaid-e-Azam University noted that the standoff is deeply ingrained in the national identities of both countries, making de-escalation politically costly. Given India’s unilateral move to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, participants concluded that while civil society continues to push for peace, the structural obstacles currently make a breakthrough unlikely.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the primary factors hindering progress between the two countries?
Speakers identified the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, reciprocal allegations of cross-border terrorism, domestic nationalism, the nuclear dilemma, and disputes over the Indus Water Treaty as the major obstacles.
Why is trade considered a critical issue by experts?
Dr. Manzoor Ahmed noted that the ban on direct trade forces reliance on indirect routes, which increases import costs. He cited a World Bank study suggesting Pakistan could see an 80 percent rise in overall exports if trade relations were normalized.
What is the current status of the Indus Waters Treaty?
Dr. Mujeeb Afzal highlighted that India has taken a unilateral step to put the treaty in abeyance, which he described as a significant layer of complexity that adds to the current instability in bilateral relations.
How might the current international climate influence the future of regional stability between these two neighbors?