Kushner’s ‘No Plan B’ for Gaza Faces Skepticism & UN Dispute

A sweeping vision for the future of Gaza, presented by Jared Kushner at the World Economic Forum in Davos, hinges on a substantial economic overhaul and large-scale infrastructure projects. Kushner asserted “there is no Plan B” beyond his proposal, envisioning “New Gaza” as a thriving industrial hub with significant employment opportunities. However, the feasibility of this plan is already facing scrutiny, particularly regarding the immense logistical challenges and existing geopolitical realities.

A Bold Economic Forecast

Kushner’s plan projects a potential Gaza GDP exceeding $10 billion by 2035. This optimistic forecast, presented alongside a timeline of development, contrasts sharply with the current conditions on the ground. The United Nations Office for Project Services estimates that Gaza is currently burdened with over 60 million tons of rubble – enough to fill nearly 3,000 container ships – requiring more than seven years to clear before even beginning the process of demining.

Did You Know? The UN estimates Gaza contains over 60 million tons of rubble, equivalent to filling nearly 3,000 container ships.

Skepticism and Counter-Arguments

The scale of the rebuilding effort prompted a dismissive response from White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly, who labeled the UN’s seven-year estimate as “laughable,” drawing a comparison to a previous escalator malfunction during a visit by former President Trump to UN headquarters. Further complicating matters, questions remain about Israel’s willingness to cooperate with the plan, which includes the construction of a new port and airport following years of blockade.

Security Concerns and Political Obstacles

Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an associate fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, suggested that Israel would likely object to high-rise construction in Gaza if it compromised the security of nearby military bases. These concerns were downplayed by Kelly, who stated, “No one cares what the U.N. so-called experts and think tank armchair quarterbacks think.” Adding another layer of complexity, Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has publicly advocated for establishing a military government in Gaza and allowing Israeli settlement.

Expert Insight: The conflicting visions for Gaza’s future – one focused on economic development and the other on security control and potential settlement – highlight the significant political hurdles facing any reconstruction plan. The lack of consensus among key stakeholders raises serious doubts about the viability of large-scale projects.

The composition of the Board of Peace’s Gaza executive board also raises questions, as it currently includes no Palestinian representatives. While Kushner acknowledged the contributions of Ali Shaath, a Palestinian former planning minister, Shaath’s role is limited to a separate technocratic body responsible for day-to-day affairs. Yakir Gabay, a Cypriot-Israeli real estate magnate, has been appointed to the Gaza executive board, reflecting Kushner’s family’s background in real estate.

What Might Happen Next

If Israel were to approve the construction of a new port and airport, it could potentially facilitate economic growth in Gaza, but only if accompanied by a significant easing of the existing blockade. However, given Smotrich’s stated goals, a shift in Israeli policy appears unlikely in the short term. The clearing of rubble and demining, even with accelerated efforts, is likely to take several years, delaying any substantial construction. A possible next step could involve further negotiations between international actors and Israel to address security concerns and establish a framework for cooperation.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected GDP for Gaza by 2035, according to Kushner’s plan?

Kushner’s plan suggests that Gaza could have an estimated GDP of “$10bn+” by 2035.

How long does the UN estimate it will take to clear the rubble in Gaza?

The United Nations Office for Project Services estimates it will take over seven years to clear the more than 60 million tons of rubble in Gaza, with additional time needed for demining.

Who is currently represented on the Board of Peace’s Gaza executive board?

There are no Palestinians named on the Board of Peace’s Gaza executive board, though Ali Shaath, a Palestinian former planning minister, leads a separate technocratic body.

Given the complex interplay of logistical challenges, political obstacles, and conflicting visions, what role will international cooperation play in shaping the future of Gaza?