Lebanon Elections 2024: Will Expats’ Vote Sway the Outcome?
Lebanon’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 10th, are facing increasing uncertainty as questions mount regarding whether the vote will proceed as planned. Political and legal developments are raising the possibility of a postponement, throwing the future of this constitutional requirement into doubt.
The Core of the Dispute
The debate centres on Articles 112 and 122 of the election law, which limit representation for Lebanese expatriates to six seats elected from the “District 16.” Several political parties, most notably the Lebanese Forces, are advocating for the suspension of these articles, mirroring what occurred in the 2018 and 2022 electoral cycles. Their goal is to allow expatriates to vote for all 128 members of parliament.
The Impact of Expatriate Votes
The Lebanese Forces’ position is informed by the results of the 2022 expatriate vote. According to “International Information” (a private statistics company), civil society groups secured 37,000 votes, while the Lebanese Forces received 27,000. In contrast, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement collectively garnered 17,000 votes, demonstrating the potential influence of expatriate voters on the balance of power.
However, Nabih Berri, the Speaker of Parliament and head of the Amal Movement, is firmly committed to upholding the existing law. He has rejected calls for a legislative session to amend the election law, noting that several amendment proposals are currently under review by parliamentary committees. A government proposal suggesting the impossibility of holding elections according to “District 16” has also been submitted to parliament.
Seeking a Legal Path Forward
In an attempt to circumvent the parliamentary deadlock, Interior Minister Ahmed Al-Hajar requested an opinion from the Legislation and Consultation Bureau. The bureau authorized holding the elections under the current law without establishing a separate district for expatriates, effectively allowing them to vote for all 128 MPs.
Constitutional expert Saeed Malek, speaking to “Al-Sharq,” clarified that the opinion of the Legislation and Consultation Bureau is not legally binding. He stated it can be considered an advisory decision with moral weight that the Minister of Interior can rely on, but it does not absolutely obligate the government. Malek emphasized that any amendment to the election law or suspension of its provisions can only occur through parliament, as “the law is not amended except by law,” placing the responsibility on the Speaker to convene the General Assembly to discuss the matter.
Ayyoub Hamid, a representative of the Amal Movement, asserted that the government is obligated to implement the existing law “no more and no less.” He noted the existence of between 10 and 15 proposals to amend the election law, arguing that any discussion should encompass the entirety of the law, not just address the demands of a specific political entity. His bloc remains committed to holding the elections on schedule, in accordance with the constitution and government decrees.
Potential for Delay and External Factors
Conversely, Razi Al-Hajj, a member of the “Strong Republic” bloc (Lebanese Forces), believes the government’s decision to proceed with the elections is clear, pointing to the fact that the nomination process for District 16 has not been opened, as its implementation is considered impossible. He anticipates the government will follow the advice of the Legislation and Consultation Bureau, allowing expatriates to vote for all 128 candidates.
Regarding the possibility of a postponement, particularly following a proposal by MP Adib Abdul-Maseeh to extend the parliament’s term by one year, Al-Hajj stated that a postponement requires a law passed by parliament with a clear majority, doubting the existence of a political majority openly supporting a delay. He added, “If Berri wants to postpone the elections, he must call for a legislative session; there is no other way.”
Beyond the legal and political maneuvering, internal and external political calculations are at play. According to political analyst Ammar Naima, the current government, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, has not been given a full opportunity to implement its program focused on reforms and restricting arms to the state. This could lead the international community to favor its continued tenure, potentially increasing the likelihood of a postponement.
Naima suggests Lebanon may be facing a governance crisis extending beyond a technical or prolonged extension, with discussions within the Hezbollah and Amal Movement (the Shia duo) about demanding a larger share in the existing political system. He also notes that resorting to the streets, through movements and protests, remains a traditional option in such situations, especially if the elections are postponed.
An external regional factor, the future of the regime in Iran, is also considered influential. Any significant developments there could prompt Hezbollah to open a foreign front if it feels existentially threatened, or to escalate domestically through political or popular movements.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main point of contention regarding the upcoming Lebanese elections?
The primary dispute revolves around Articles 112 and 122 of the election law, which limit expatriate representation to six seats. Some parties want these articles suspended to allow expatriates to vote for all 128 parliamentary members.
What role does Nabih Berri play in this situation?
Nabih Berri, the Speaker of Parliament and head of the Amal Movement, insists on upholding the existing election law and has rejected calls to amend it.
What could happen if the elections are postponed?
A postponement would require a law passed by parliament with a clear majority. Analysts suggest it could lead to a broader governance crisis and potentially trigger protests.
Given the complex interplay of legal challenges, political maneuvering, and external influences, what impact will these factors ultimately have on the future of Lebanon’s political landscape?