Mexico: Chaos After ‘El Mencho’ – Cartel Violence & Safety Alert

The apparent incapacitation of El Mencho, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has thrown Mexico into a state of heightened alert. The loss of a founder and absolute leader of one of the world’s largest and most powerful criminal organizations creates a dangerous power vacuum, sparking fears of escalating violence, and instability.

The immediate question dominating discussions in Mexico is: what are the consequences for everyday life? The recent scenes of widespread unrest – vehicle arson, airport disruptions, and travel advisories – offer a chilling preview.

Code Red and the Escalation of Violence

The U.S. Embassy issued stark warnings to citizens in several states, urging them to shelter in place. Airports experienced partial shutdowns. Even the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised its citizens in affected regions to remain indoors. These responses underscore the CJNG’s pervasive influence, operating in over 700 municipalities across Mexico.

The most immediate impact is felt in Jalisco, the cartel’s birthplace. Governor Pablo Lemus urged the state’s nearly nine million residents to stay home, declaring a “code red” due to the security situation. Public transportation ground to a halt, and smoke plumes rose over tourist hotspots like Puerto Vallarta, a result of coordinated arson attacks.

El Mencho was widely considered the most wanted drug lord in Mexico, with some U.S. Authorities labelling him the most powerful drug trafficker globally. His long-term operation from the rugged Sierra Madre mountains, constantly shifting between fortified properties, speaks to the challenges of targeting such figures.

The government’s reluctance to act sooner may have stemmed from fears about the aftermath – a scenario they are now facing.

The Kingpin Strategy: A Failed Approach?

The “kingpin strategy” – eliminating a cartel’s leader – often leads to increased violence as factions within the organization battle for control. Simultaneously, rival groups attempt to exploit the resulting weakness, escalating territorial conflicts. This is a well-documented phenomenon in Latin American drug wars. RAND Corporation research highlights the limited long-term effectiveness of this approach.

Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a leading expert on organized crime at the Inter-American Dialogue, anticipates a significant deterioration in security in parts of Mexico. “We are already seeing confrontations with the state,” she notes, expressing skepticism about the kingpin strategy’s efficacy. “Eliminating a leader almost always leads to more violence in the short term. And research shows that removing key criminals doesn’t eliminate an organization. The CJNG will simply continue to exist.”

“Given the scale of the drug trade the cartel is involved in, I don’t expect any disruption in international drug trafficking either,” she adds.

The Cocaine Supply Route and Future Leadership

The CJNG is notorious for its paramilitary structure, employing ex-military personnel from Colombia and Guatemala. Its use of drones, landmines, and rocket launchers has contributed to the militarization of cartel violence in recent years. A recent InsightCrime report details the cartel’s evolving tactics and expanding influence.

The cartel generates substantial revenue from methamphetamine and cocaine trafficking to Europe and the United States. A key cocaine smuggling route from Colombia, via Ecuador to Mexico, is firmly under CJNG control.

A critical question now is: who will assume leadership of this global empire? Unlike many Mexican cartels where succession follows family lines, this is less clear-cut in the case of El Mencho.

The World Cup Factor

His son, a cartel commander, is serving a life sentence in the U.S. His brother, Antonio, alias Scarface, was extradited to the U.S. In February of last year. An internal power struggle could weaken the CJNG, but also inflict a heavy toll on communities where the organization has a strong presence.

Mexico also faces a looming deadline: the FIFA World Cup begins in June, and Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, is a host city. The recent vehicle arsons in the city raise concerns about potential retaliation and whether Guadalajara can guarantee safety during the tournament.

The government’s challenge is to demonstrate to the world that Mexico is safer with El Mencho neutralized.

FAQ

• What is the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)? The CJNG is one of Mexico’s most powerful and violent drug cartels, known for its military-style tactics and extensive reach.
• What are the potential consequences of El Mencho’s capture? Increased violence, power struggles within the cartel, and potential disruptions to drug trafficking routes are all likely outcomes.
• Is it safe to travel to Mexico right now? Travel advisories have been issued by several countries. It’s crucial to check the latest guidance from your government and exercise extreme caution.
• Will El Mencho’s capture significantly impact the drug trade? Experts believe the cartel will continue to operate, and the drug trade will likely be disrupted only temporarily.

Pro Tip: Stay informed about the latest security developments in Mexico by following reputable news sources and government travel advisories.

What are your thoughts on the future of the CJNG? Share your insights in the comments below!