MLB wins totals predictions, projections for 2026 season
As spring training begins, Major League Baseball is shaping up to be a season of tight competition, with parity expected across most divisions. However, one team stands apart: the Los Angeles Dodgers, projected by a five-person USA TODAY Sports panel to dominate the National League West and remain strong contenders for a third consecutive World Series title.
A League of Close Races
The panel’s projections suggest a highly competitive year, with many teams poised for late-season battles for playoff positioning. While overall parity is anticipated, the Dodgers are seen as a clear frontrunner, projected to win the NL West by a margin of eight games.
AL East: A Tight Contest
The American League East appears to be a two-horse race between the Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) and the New York Yankees (90-72). A key question for the Blue Jays is how they will perform without Bo Bichette. The Baltimore Orioles (85-77) are favored to return to the playoffs, bolstered by a recent acquisition described as “flush with a Polar Bear.” The Boston Red Sox (84-78) and Tampa Bay Rays (76-86) are expected to be less competitive, with the Rays undergoing significant roster changes.
AL Central: Tigers Take the Lead
A surprising development in the American League Central is the expected dominance of the Detroit Tigers (90-72), largely attributed to the recent signing of Framber Valdez. Despite a history of late-season collapses, the Tigers are considered the favourites. The Cleveland Guardians (83-79) and Kansas City Royals (83-79) are also projected to be in contention, while the Chicago White Sox (67-95) and Minnesota Twins (65-97) are expected to struggle.
AL West: Mariners Emerge as favourites
The Seattle Mariners (92-70) have emerged as the favourites in the American League West following the acquisition of Brendan Donovan. The Texas Rangers (86-76) have also made significant roster moves, while the Houston Astros (84-78) are facing questions about their outfield depth. The Oakland Athletics (76-86) and Los Angeles Angels (72-90) are projected to finish lower in the standings.
NL East: Phillies and Mets Lead the Way
The Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) and New York Mets (87-75) are expected to be the top contenders in the National League East. The Mets, in particular, have been active in the offseason, assembling a potent lineup featuring Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Bo Bichette. The Atlanta Braves (84-78), Miami Marlins (79-83), and Washington Nationals (62-100) are projected to be less competitive.
NL Central: Cubs and Brewers Battle for Supremacy
The Chicago Cubs (88-74) and Milwaukee Brewers (87-75) are expected to be the top teams in the National League Central. The Cubs’ chances hinge on the performance of Alex Bregman, while the Brewers have undergone roster changes, including the departure of Freddy Peralta. The Cincinnati Reds (83-79), Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88), and St. Louis Cardinals (68-94) are projected to be less competitive.
NL West: Dodgers Dominate
The Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) are heavily favored to win the National League West, with a projected payroll of $550 million. The San Diego Padres (85-77) are expected to be their closest competitors, while the San Francisco Giants (80-82), Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82), and Colorado Rockies (57-105) are projected to finish lower in the standings.
Frequently Asked Questions
What team is projected to win the most games in 2026?
The Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to win 98 games in 2026, with a range of 93 to 104 wins.
Which division is expected to be the most competitive?
The American League East is expected to be a very close race between the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees.
What impact did the Framber Valdez signing have on the AL Central?
The signing of Framber Valdez is considered to have likely secured the division title for the Detroit Tigers.
With so much potential for unexpected turns, what storyline are you most eager to follow as the 2026 MLB season unfolds?