Myanmar’s Civil War: Russia, China & a Neglected Crisis

Five years after a military coup plunged Myanmar into turmoil, the nation remains gripped by a brutal civil war. Over 92,000 people have been killed, and more than 16 million require humanitarian assistance. While the crisis often receives limited international attention, the situation is raising concerns about regional stability and the geopolitical interests at play.

The Spark: From Protests to Armed Conflict

On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military seized power, detaining elected leaders and disrupting communications. The military justified the coup by alleging fraud in the 2020 elections, claims disputed by international observers. In the days that followed, millions of citizens took to the streets in protest. Civil servants, students, doctors, and teachers joined what became known as the Civil Disobedience Movement.

Demonstrations were met with violence, escalating protests into widespread armed resistance. Today, Myanmar is embroiled in one of the most complex civil wars globally.

Did You Know? Since the 2021 coup, over 92,000 people have been killed in Myanmar, and more than four million have been internally displaced.

A Disputed Election Amidst Ongoing Conflict

Despite the ongoing conflict, Myanmar’s military government attempted to hold national elections in late 2025 and early 2026. However, many opposition parties were barred from participating, thousands of political prisoners remain incarcerated, and voter turnout dropped to approximately 55%, significantly lower than in previous democratic elections. Parties aligned with the military secured control of parliament.

Five years after the coup, Myanmar has elections, but lacks both stability and legitimacy. The international community acknowledges the situation, but decisive action remains elusive.

Limited Western Influence

Western nations responded to the coup with sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and humanitarian aid. However, even with sanctions in place, the Myanmar military continued to receive critical war supplies. In 2025, over 109,000 tons of aviation fuel were imported into Myanmar, contributing to what has become the deadliest year for aerial attacks since the coup. Low-tech aerial assaults, including over 300 attacks using paramotors and light aircraft targeting civilians since late 2024, are also ongoing.

Despite sanctions, structural limitations hinder the West’s ability to influence events. Myanmar is not deeply integrated into Western economic supply chains, nor is it a major manufacturing hub or energy exporter to the West. Economic interdependence and strategic considerations often outweigh concerns about the crisis in Myanmar.

Expert Insight: The limited impact of Western sanctions highlights the challenges of influencing a nation that isn’t strategically vital to major economic powers. The situation underscores how geopolitical realities can often supersede humanitarian concerns in international relations.

China’s Deepening Ties

While many nations have sought to halt the civil war, some have actively contributed to its continuation. China maintains deep and structural relationships with Myanmar, serving as its largest trading partner and a significant investor. In 2025, Myanmar exported approximately $620 million worth of rare earth metals to China – materials crucial for electronics, renewable energy, and modern industry.

China is also involved in infrastructure projects, including transportation corridors, pipelines, and energy projects. Myanmar, in turn, provides China with access to the Indian Ocean and helps diversify its trade routes. Beijing has facilitated talks between the Myanmar military and some ethnic armed groups, while also pressuring Myanmar when cross-border crime threatens its interests. China does not desire open conflict, but benefits from the instability, which increases Myanmar’s economic and political dependence on Beijing.

Russia’s Strategic Role

Russia plays a smaller economic role in Myanmar than China, but focuses on strategically important sectors. It has signed agreements for oil and gas exploration, electricity generation projects, and industrial cooperation. Russia is also a major supplier of military equipment to Myanmar, with its aircraft and helicopters helping to maintain the Myanmar military’s operational capabilities.

For Russia, these relationships serve both geopolitical and economic purposes. Neither Russia nor China initiated the civil war in Myanmar, but both are willing to cooperate with the current government rather than risk uncertainty with a potential future regime.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current humanitarian situation in Myanmar?

Approximately 16 million people, nearly a third of Myanmar’s population, require humanitarian assistance, including food, shelter, and medical care.

What role is ASEAN playing in the Myanmar crisis?

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has struggled to influence events in Myanmar, impacting regional cooperation and the idea of a stable and cohesive Southeast Asia.

What is the significance of Myanmar’s rare earth metal exports to China?

Myanmar’s exports of approximately $620 million worth of rare earth metals to China in 2025 highlight the economic ties between the two countries and China’s reliance on Myanmar for these critical materials.

The civil war in Myanmar is a complex case study in modern international politics. It is a conflict condemned internationally, yet one that the international community seems unable or unwilling to actively resolve. What level of international consensus, if any, would be required to meaningfully alter the trajectory of the conflict in Myanmar?