NBA free agency 2026: Small forward class is thin on impact players
The NBA small forward free-agent market is the least productive of all positions, with no unrestricted free agents valued above the projected $15 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception (MLE), according to BORD$ valuations. Only restricted players or those with team options, such as Tari Eason, currently command valuations exceeding that threshold.
Why is the small forward market so limited?
The market for small forwards is described as the “driest” of all NBA positions. According to BORD$ valuations, not a single unrestricted free agent at the position is worth more than the projected non-taxpayer MLE of approximately $15 million.
This scarcity means teams seeking a starting small forward may struggle to find an available player of that caliber. Most high-value wings are currently tied up in restricted free agency, team options, or player options.
Which players hold the highest market value?
Tari Eason of the Houston Rockets holds the highest valuation at $24,110,720. As a restricted free agent, Eason is viewed as a “chaos agent” with strong defensive instincts and a 35.8 percent three-point shooting rate.
Lu Dort of Oklahoma City follows with a valuation of $17,705,328, though he is currently under a team option. Duncan Robinson of Detroit is valued at $16,785,284 on a partially guaranteed deal.
Other players valued near or above the MLE include Kevin Huerter at $14,886,871 and Andrew Wiggins at $13,735,931. Wiggins, however, holds a player option worth $30 million, making it unlikely he enters the open market.
What are the likely outcomes for top wing players?
Tari Eason could see a market value around three years and $75 million. Houston is expected to tender him an $8 million qualifying offer and may match reasonable offer sheets given their manageable cap sheet.
Lu Dort’s future in Oklahoma City is less certain. The Thunder are projected to be $40 million over the luxury tax line and have younger players at his position. The team could trade Dort for second-round picks to generate a $17 million trade exception or decline his option, which may lead to Dort receiving full MLE offers.
Peyton Watson, valued at $12,953,096, may attract heavy bidding from teams with MLE money. This is due to a perception that the Denver Nuggets may not match a strong offer sheet for the 23-year-old.
Who are the primary candidates for minimum contracts?
Several players are positioned as “good minimums” or rotation fillers. Bruce Brown may return to Denver on a one-year minimum deal to lock in early Bird rights for next summer.
Spencer Jones, a 6-7 3-and-D forward who shot 39.6 percent from three, is a restricted free agent. Denver could secure him with a qualifying offer of $2.65 million.
Other potential minimum-contract players include Jamal Cain of Orlando, who shot 38.4 percent from three, and Amir Coffey of Phoenix. In Boston, Ron Harper Jr. may be re-signed to a multi-year minimum deal after the Celtics decline his team option.
Some players are expected to leave the NBA entirely. Joe Ingles has already agreed to a deal to return to the Australian league.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the highest-valued small forward according to BORD$ valuations?
Tari Eason of the Houston Rockets is the highest-valued player at the position, with a valuation of $24,110,720.
What is the projected non-taxpayer midlevel exception (MLE) for this market?
The projected non-taxpayer MLE is approximately $15 million.
Which small forward is likely to return to an international league?
Joe Ingles has agreed to return to the Australian league.
Given the lack of high-end unrestricted wings, which team do you think is most likely to make a trade for a small forward this offseason?