New Era of Nuclear Policy: Key Treaty Expires February 2, 2026

The era of arms control regarding nuclear arsenals may be coming to an end this week, as the last legal mechanism limiting deployed nuclear weapons between Russia and the United States is set to expire. This development, as reported by the Financial Times, raises concerns about a potential new era of nuclear policy on the brink of great power conflict.

A Half-Century of Limitations Ends

The New START treaty, which caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems for both the U.S. And Russia, will expire on Thursday. With prospects for future negotiations appearing bleak, this could open the door to a new arms race. James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated, “I think we are on the cusp of a new arms race… I don’t think another treaty limiting arms will be concluded in my lifetime.”

A History of Control

The expiration of the treaty marks the end of over half a century of efforts by Moscow and Washington to limit their arsenals, beginning with agreements between Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev in 1972 and continuing through negotiations between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985. The 1991 START I treaty imposed the first significant restrictions on strategic nuclear weapons and established a verification regime that became a model for post-Cold War arms control.

Did You Know? The New START treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, limited each side to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads.

Current Standoff and Potential Paths Forward

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed that both sides voluntarily continue to abide by the treaty’s limits after its expiration. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, calling the proposal a “good idea,” has not yet issued an official response, but indicated a preference for a “new, much better deal” with Russia and China. A White House representative stated that Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need to address the threat posed by nuclear weapons and expressed a desire to maintain limits on nuclear arms while including China in arms control talks.

Discussions surrounding the 2010 treaty, initiated during the Obama administration’s attempt to “reset” relations with Russia, stalled after Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia subsequently suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023 and hinted at potentially resuming nuclear tests.

Expert Insight: The lack of a treaty reflects a broader deterioration in relations between the U.S. And Russia, and the value of the New START treaty lay not just in the limitations it imposed, but in the verification system it established.

Escalating Tensions and New Weapons

Last year, Trump directed the Pentagon to resume nuclear tests “on a reciprocal basis” with Russia and China, though it remains unclear whether this refers to explosive tests or tests of delivery systems. Russia continues to serially produce new nuclear weapons and warheads, while the U.S. Focuses on modernizing its existing stockpile. Moscow is also developing advanced nuclear delivery systems, including the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater drone, as well as hypersonic systems like the Avangard.

What Might Happen Next?

Several scenarios are possible. Trump could, at the last moment, announce an intention to accept Putin’s proposal to extend the limitations for another year. Alternatively, the absence of a treaty could lead to increased competition in building up nuclear arsenals. Rose Gottemoeller, a former U.S. Chief negotiator, suggested that accepting Putin’s proposal for a voluntary extension would be a “sensible solution,” warning that the U.S. Could be at a disadvantage if both sides compete to increase their warhead numbers, as Russia may be able to add warheads more quickly.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New START treaty?

The New START treaty limited the number of deployed nuclear warheads and delivery systems for the U.S. And Russia, and it is set to expire on Thursday.

What has been the response from the U.S. And Russia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed extending the treaty’s limits voluntarily, while former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed interest in a “better deal” with Russia and China.

What are the potential consequences of the treaty’s expiration?

The expiration could lead to a new arms race, as well as increased uncertainty and risk due to the absence of verification measures.

As the landscape of nuclear arms control shifts, what role will emerging technologies and geopolitical tensions play in shaping the future of global security?