Real time? Bus Éireann’s elusive No 22 will give you a surreal time – The Irish Times

The reliability of rural public transport is shifting toward Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT) to solve the “ghost bus” phenomenon. By replacing rigid, failing timetables with app-based, flexible routing, transport agencies aim to eliminate the gap between real-time tracking data and actual vehicle arrivals in underserved regions.

Waiting for a bus that exists only on a digital map is a uniquely modern frustration. Whether it’s the elusive Route 22 in Ballaghaderreen or a delayed commuter rail in a major city, the “ghost bus” is a failure of Real-Time Passenger Information (RTPI). This happens when a vehicle’s GPS fails to ping the server, or a driver bypasses a stop without updating the system, leaving passengers staring at a screen that insists the bus is “due” while the street remains empty.

Why do “ghost buses” happen in real-time tracking?

Ghost buses occur because of a disconnect between scheduled data and actual telemetry. According to technical standards for GTFS (General Transit Feed Specification), a “real-time” update requires a constant handshake between the vehicle’s onboard unit and the central server.

When a driver skips a stop—as reported in the case of the Route 22—the system may not register the omission. The algorithm assumes the bus is still on its path. For the passenger, the app shows the bus approaching, but the physical reality is a vacant curb. This creates a “trust gap” where users stop relying on the technology and return to guesswork.

In rural areas, this is exacerbated by “dead zones” in cellular coverage. A bus might be five minutes away, but if it hits a signal dip, the RTPI freezes. The passenger sees a bus stalled in a field; the driver sees a clear road. It’s a digital hallucination that turns a simple commute into a gamble.

How is Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT) replacing fixed routes?

The future of rural connectivity isn’t a fixed timetable that no one follows; it’s Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT). Instead of a bus running a set route at 4:21 pm regardless of demand, DRT uses algorithms to route vehicles based on actual bookings made via an app or phone call.

Ireland’s Local Link services have already begun implementing versions of this. By moving away from the “fixed-route, fixed-time” model, agencies can reduce “empty bus” runs and ensure that if a vehicle is dispatched, it’s because there is a verified passenger waiting.

This shift solves the “ghost bus” problem by tethering the vehicle’s movement to a specific request. You don’t wait for a schedule; you wait for a confirmed pickup. It transforms public transit from a rigid utility into a flexible service, similar to Uber but operated by public authorities.

What does the “rural connectivity gap” mean for public health?

Unreliable transport isn’t just an inconvenience; it’s a systemic barrier to healthcare. When a passenger misses a hospital appointment because a bus simply didn’t stop, it triggers a domino effect of delayed diagnoses and increased pressure on emergency departments.

Transport poverty—the lack of affordable, reliable access to transport—is a recognized driver of social inequality. According to reports on rural accessibility, those without private cars in regions like Mayo or Roscommon are disproportionately affected by “service deserts.” When the “real-time” function becomes a piece of fiction, the most vulnerable populations are the ones left stranded.

The consequence is a forced reliance on private cars, which contradicts national carbon reduction goals. You can’t ask people to leave their cars at home if the alternative is a bus that might, or might not, appear at 10:23 am.

Will AI finally fix the “Real-Time” lie?

Predictive AI is the next step beyond simple GPS tracking. Current systems are reactive—they tell you where the bus is *now*. Future systems will be predictive, analyzing historical traffic patterns, driver behavior, and weather data to provide a “probability of arrival.”

Instead of saying “The bus is 2 minutes away,” an AI-driven system might say, “Based on the last ten Tuesdays, this driver typically bypasses this stop if there are no pre-booked passengers. Probability of stop: 60%.” While that sounds cynical, it’s more honest than a digital ghost.

We’re also seeing a move toward “Integrated Mobility,” where a single ticket covers a bus, a local taxi, and a bike-share. If the bus fails, the system automatically triggers a subsidized taxi to ensure the passenger reaches their medical appointment on time.

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