Russia-Ukraine War: Kremlin Claims Inevitable Victory, ISW Disputes Gains

The Kremlin continues efforts to persuade the West to abandon Ukraine, asserting that a Russian victory on the battlefield is inevitable. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have reportedly seized approximately 900 square kilometers and 42 settlements since the beginning of 2026, as stated by Colonel-General Sergey Rudskoy, Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of Russia, on February 20.

Russian Claims of Territorial Gains

Rudskoy claims elements of the Northern Group of Forces have taken 26 settlements in the Sumy region and 15 settlements, including the city of Vovchansk, in the northern Kharkiv region as of February 20. He stated Russian forces are “creating a security zone” along the international border between Ukraine and Russia. Elements of the Western Group of Forces are said to have captured “over 50” settlements in 2025, including Kupiansk – a claim frequently repeated by the Kremlin, but disputed by Russian bloggers.

Rudskoy further alleges that elements of the Central Group of Forces have seized 86 settlements in 2025, including major cities like Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Myrnograd. The Eastern Group of Forces is reported to have captured Hulyaipole in 2025, along with 160 square kilometers and 11 settlements in eastern Zaporizhzhia and southern Dnipropetrovsk regions in January and February 2026. Rudskoy acknowledged recent Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.

Elements of the Dnipro Group of Forces are said to have captured 12 settlements in western Zaporizhzhia region since November 2025, advancing 12 kilometers from the southern and southeastern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city.

Discrepancies in Reported Gains

However, ISW analysis, based on available evidence, assesses that Russian forces have only captured 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of 2026 – a difference of 23 settlements and 328 square kilometers from Rudskoy’s claims. ISW evidence indicates Russian forces captured only 252 settlements throughout 2025 – approximately 50 fewer than claimed by Rudskoy – and seized nine settlements in the Sumy region and seven in northern Kharkiv region.

Russia is reportedly seizing small rural settlements along the international border and presenting these gains as evidence of military strength, supporting the narrative of an inevitable Russian victory. Russian forces have repeatedly claimed to be expanding a “buffer zone” in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

Internal Repression and Propaganda Efforts

ISW assesses that Russian forces are conducting limited cross-border attacks in previously quiet areas of the Sumy region to convince the West that Ukrainian front lines are collapsing and Ukraine should concede to Russian demands. In reality, Russian forces continue to achieve marginal gains at a high cost, having advanced between 13-15 square kilometers per day in 2025 at a cost of 83 casualties per square kilometer.

The Kremlin is also cracking down on former pro-Russian figures who have criticized its actions, consolidating control over the Russian information space. On February 18, the Kremlin’s TASS news agency reported that Russian authorities opened an administrative case against former pro-Russian separatist leader Pavel Gubarev for “discrediting the Russian armed forces,” facing a fine of 30,000 to 50,000 rubles (approximately $391 to $651).

This repression is seen as an attempt to preempt backlash from veterans dissatisfied with President Putin’s failure to achieve the goals of the Russian Spring and the broader “Novorossiya” project, and to eliminate witnesses to the Kremlin’s falsehoods regarding its initial invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Political Maneuvering Ahead of Elections

The crackdown on Telegram by Russian authorities suggests a broader effort to control the Russian ultra-nationalist information space. The war in Ukraine is increasingly impacting the Russian population, prompting the Russian Presidential Administration and the United Russia party to invest in mitigating strategies ahead of the State Duma elections in September 2026. Sources from a major Russian news channel reported to the Russian opposition channel “Meduza” on February 20 that the political bloc of the Russian Presidential Administration instructed news channels to write more frequently about “United Russia” before the September 2026 elections.

Alleged Assassination Attempts and Sabotage

Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities reportedly thwarted a Russian attempt to assassinate prominent Ukrainians and destabilize Ukraine. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko announced on February 20 that ten individuals were detained in connection with a Russian plot to murder prominent Ukrainians.

Kravchenko and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) stated Russian intelligence offered the individuals up to $100,000 for the murders of Ukrainian journalists, public figures, the head of a strategically important company, and personnel from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion and the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR), including Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Andriy Yusov. Kravchenko noted the plotters intended these murders to provoke public outrage in Ukraine, generate negative media coverage, and incite further subversive actions. This is likely a continuation of Russia’s campaign of sabotage operations in Ukraine, including the murder of former Verkhovna Rada Chairman Andriy Parubiy in August 2025.

Frequently Asked Questions

What territorial gains does Russia claim to have made?

According to Colonel-General Sergey Rudskoy, Russian forces have seized approximately 900 square kilometers and 42 settlements since the beginning of 2026, including settlements in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

How do ISW’s assessments differ from Russian claims?

ISW assesses that Russian forces have only captured 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of 2026, significantly less than the figures reported by Russian officials.

What actions is the Kremlin taking to control information within Russia?

The Kremlin is cracking down on former pro-Russian figures who criticize its actions and is increasing control over the Russian information space, including efforts to suppress content on Telegram.

Given these ongoing efforts to shape both international and domestic narratives, what impact will these strategies have on the long-term trajectory of the conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape?