Toulon Elections: Lavalette Leads in Polls, Tight Race Predicted

A closely contested race is shaping up for the upcoming municipal elections in Toulon. A recent Ifop poll, commissioned by the local business collective “Un bouclier pour Toulon” and revealed by Var Matin, indicates that Laure Lavalette is currently leading in the first round of voting intentions.

A Tight Race for Toulon’s Mayoral Seat

Lavalette, a candidate without a formal party affiliation but with the support of the Rassemblement National, currently holds 39% of the vote. This places her fifteen percentage points ahead of incumbent Mayor Josée Massi, who has 24%. Senator Michel Bonnus trails with 15%, and Magali Brunel (PS, EELV and PCF) receives 13% of the intended votes.

Did You Know? Toulon was one of the first major cities in France to be won by the Front National in 1995, with the election of Jean-Marie Le Chevallier.

The city of the Var is considered a key target for the far-right party. Laure Lavalette, a close associate of Marine Le Pen, was re-elected as a deputy for the 2nd district of the Var in 2024.

A Divided Right

However, the poll suggests the current lead for Lavalette may shift in a second round. Josée Massi is projected to take the lead with 52% of the vote, compared to 48% for Lavalette. This projection is contingent on a “republican front,” where all other political groups unite behind Massi’s candidacy, according to Hugo Lasserre, head of political studies at Ifop.

The situation is complicated by divisions within the local right-wing. Michel Bonnus’s candidacy has been endorsed by Hubert Falco, a former mayor of twenty-two years who was removed from his positions by the justice system following a case of embezzlement. This endorsement has reportedly caused friction with Josée Massi, who succeeded Falco as mayor.

Massi has ruled out forming a joint list with Bonnus, stating to Ici Provence that six months of attempts at unity failed to reach a consensus. She characterized the first round as effectively a primary election.

Expert Insight: The potential for a “republican front” highlights the strategic calculations often at play in French elections, where parties may set aside ideological differences to prevent the success of a candidate they deem unacceptable.

Renaud Muselier, head of Renaissance in the Sud region, has called for “common sense,” urging Michel Bonnus to align with Josée Massi, citing a significant gap in support between the two.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is currently leading in the polls for the Toulon mayoral election?

According to the Ifop poll, Laure Lavalette is currently leading with 39% of the vote.

What is the projected outcome if a “republican front” forms?

If all other political groups unite behind Josée Massi, she is projected to win the second round with 52% of the vote, compared to 48% for Laure Lavalette.

Why is the right-wing vote divided in Toulon?

The right-wing vote is divided due to the candidacy of Michel Bonnus, who was endorsed by Hubert Falco, a former mayor who was removed from office following a legal case.

As the election approaches, will the divisions within the right-wing ultimately determine the outcome in Toulon?