Trade Resilience and Structural Shifts

China’s total import and export value reached a record US$6.36 trillion in 2025, a 3.8 percent year-on-year increase. This performance underscores the adaptability of the world’s second-largest economy amidst geopolitical fragmentation, slowing global demand, and trade protectionism. Export growth, at 6.1 percent, continues to drive the overall trade picture, while imports are showing tentative signs of recovery.

A Shift in China’s Trade Profile

The data reveals a significant structural shift in China’s trade landscape. The nation is moving away from its historical role as a low-cost manufacturing hub and toward a trade profile centered on high-end manufacturing, green technologies, and diversified markets. This transition is reinforced by expanding trade ties with ASEAN and Belt and Road partners, reducing exposure to geopolitical friction with developed economies.

Did You Know? China’s annual trade surplus exceeded US$1 trillion for the first time in 2025, reaching a record US$1.19 trillion.

Record Trade Surplus and V-Shaped Recovery

A defining feature of 2025 was the widening import-export gap, resulting in a record US$1.19 trillion trade surplus. Trade performance followed a distinct V-shaped trajectory, with a sluggish start followed by stabilization in the second quarter and accelerating momentum through the second half of the year. December saw a new monthly record of US$617 billion in imports and exports.

Structural Changes in Exports

China’s export performance in 2025 demonstrated a divergence between technology-intensive sectors and traditional labor-intensive goods. Mechanical and electrical products, along with high-tech exports, experienced consistent growth, while exports of garments, footwear, and furniture declined. This reflects China’s ongoing industrial upgrading.

Expert Insight: The shift away from low-cost manufacturing signals a strategic move by China to compete on innovation and quality, rather than solely on price, positioning it as a more sophisticated player in the global economy.

The Rise of the “New Three” Industries

The most explosive growth occurred in electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries, and solar products – the “New Three” industries – with combined exports surging 27.1 percent. Within this sector, exports of wind turbine generators jumped 48.7 percent, lithium battery exports grew 26.2 percent, and exports of electric motorcycles and railway locomotives increased by 18.1 percent and 27.1 percent, respectively. China also transitioned into a net exporter of industrial robots, with exports surging 48.7 percent.

Diversification of Trading Partners

Trade with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries reached US$3.39 trillion, capturing 51.9 percent of China’s total trade value. ASEAN solidified its position as China’s largest trading partner, exceeding US$1.02 trillion in bilateral trade. Trade with Africa surged 18.4 percent, and with Latin America grew 6.5 percent. In contrast, trade with the United States contracted, with exports falling 20 percent and imports declining 14.6 percent.

Import Dynamics and Domestic Demand

Despite modest full-year growth of 0.5 percent, China’s imports followed a V-shaped recovery pattern. Import growth peaked at 7.4 percent in September and remained resilient through year-end. This improvement was led by industrial inputs, reflecting stabilizing manufacturing activity. While commodity prices globally declined, import volumes of crude oil and iron ore increased by 4.4 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, indicating continued domestic industrial demand.

The Role of Private Enterprise

Private companies generated US$3.74 trillion in import and export value, a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year, representing 57.3 percent of China’s total foreign trade. These firms demonstrated agility in navigating geopolitical fractures, driving double-digit trade growth in Africa and Latin America. Exports of products under “self-owned brands” grew by 12.9 percent, indicating a shift from original equipment manufacturing to original brand manufacturing.

Outlook for 2026 and Challenges Ahead

Looking ahead to 2026, China’s foreign trade is expected to remain resilient but more constrained. Export growth is likely to moderate to around 4 percent, while import growth will depend on domestic stimulus and institutional opening-up. Continued trade-in programs and deeper integration under RCEP and the China-ASEAN FTA 3.0 will support both imports and regional trade integration.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the total value of China’s imports and exports in 2025?

The total value of China’s imports and exports in 2025 reached a record US$6.36 trillion.

Which industries experienced the most explosive growth in exports?

The “New Three” industries – electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries, and solar products – experienced the most explosive growth in exports, with a combined surge of 27.1 percent.

What percentage of China’s total trade value was captured by trade with BRI partner countries?

Trade with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries reached US$3.39 trillion, capturing 51.9 percent of China’s total trade value.

As China continues to reshape its trade relationships and prioritize high-tech and green industries, how might these shifts impact global supply chains and international economic dynamics?