WMO Warns of Severe El Niño Impacts and Extreme Heat This Summer

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning that there is an 80% probability of the El Niño phenomenon developing this summer. This natural climate event is expected to bring significant heat to large portions of the globe.

Did You Know? There is approximately a 90% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will persist at least until November.

The Mechanism and Climate Amplification

El Niño is a natural phenomenon characterized by the warming of surface waters in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean. However, experts indicate that the effects of this event are becoming significantly more pronounced and dangerous for populations due to ongoing climate change.

While climate change may not increase the frequency of El Niño itself, it intensifies its impact. Warmer oceans and atmospheres create the conditions for more intense heatwaves and heavier precipitation.

Economic Implications for Global Agriculture

The WMO expects the upcoming El Niño episode to be at least moderate and potentially strong. From June to August, temperatures in nearly all global regions are expected to remain above the long-term average.

Low precipitation is projected for Africa, South Asia, and Central America, which could negatively impact agricultural productivity. Specifically, the harvests of weather-sensitive crops—including rice, coffee, tea, bananas, and various fruits—could be threatened.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter notes that the intersection of natural climate cycles and systemic warming creates a volatile environment for global trade. When primary producing nations face simultaneous droughts or floods, the resulting supply shocks typically translate into less predictable and higher retail prices for consumers worldwide.

Regional Risks and Market Volatility

In Central Europe and the Baltic states, meteorologists suggest several possibilities. These include a hotter summer, a warmer autumn, and periods of intense rainstorms and local flooding.

From a business perspective, these conditions may lead to a rise in the cost of imported food products. Experts warn that food prices in many countries could become more expensive and less predictable if producer nations suffer from extreme weather.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described this situation as an urgent climate warning, noting that El Niño reinforces existing global warming trends. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has emphasized the critical need for enhanced preparation for heatwaves, heavy rains, and drought across both land and oceans.

Future Outlook and Mitigation

The current El Niño phase may last until the end of the year. To mitigate the impact of these extreme weather events and protect populations, the WMO stresses the importance of early warning systems and advanced planning.

Mar 5, 2026: Latest Euro Summer Forecast | El Niño | Severe Setup | Dry Trend

If severe droughts or floods occur in key producing regions, the global food supply could be significantly affected, potentially driving further price increases in stores.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the probability of El Niño occurring this summer?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will develop this summer.

Which specific crops are most at risk?

The harvests of weather-sensitive crops, including rice, tea, coffee, bananas, and other fruits, could be significantly impacted.

How might El Niño affect consumers in Central Europe and the Baltics?

Consumers may experience a hotter summer and warmer autumn, as well as a potential increase in the prices of imported food products.

How do you think businesses should adapt their supply chains to handle increasing climate volatility?