2026 U.S. Open odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, N.Y., will host the 2026 U.S. Open starting Thursday, June 18. According to FanDuel odds, Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win at +550, followed by Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Jon Rahm (+1300). This event marks the sixth time the links course has hosted the major.

Who are the favorites for the 2026 U.S. Open?

Scottie Scheffler leads the betting board at +550, with Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Jon Rahm (+1300) as primary contenders. Other top odds include Tommy Fleetwood (+2000), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000), Xander Schauffele (+2000), and Ludvig Åberg (+2500), according to FanDuel.

The field includes a dozen past champions. This group features Wyndham Clark, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm.

Did You Know? The 2026 U.S. Open marks the sixth time Shinnecock Hills has hosted the major, with Brooks Koepka winning the last time the event was held there in 2018.

Why is Brooks Koepka considered a risky bet?

A proprietary model from SportsLine, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates the event 10,000 times and projects that Brooks Koepka (+3500) may finish outside the top 25. McClure’s model suggests Koepka is a player to avoid despite his 2018 victory at Shinnecock.

Data shows Koepka ranks outside the top 100 tour golfers in both driving accuracy percentage and strokes gained: putting. Additionally, he has not recorded a top 10 finish in his last 12 major tournament starts, according to the SportsLine analysis.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter notes that the contrast between Koepka’s historical success at Shinnecock and his current statistical decline in accuracy and putting creates a high-risk scenario for bettors.

Can Scottie Scheffler complete the Career Grand Slam?

A victory at the 2026 U.S. Open would make Scottie Scheffler the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam. Scheffler has placed in the top seven in four of his last five U.S. Open starts, with a runner-up finish in 2022, according to source data.

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While he has only one victory in 2026—down from at least six wins in both 2024 and 2025—half of his 12 events this year resulted in top-three finishes. Scheffler has never competed at Shinnecock, though he placed 14th at this year’s PGA Championship, which was also his first time playing that specific course.

What challenges face Rory McIlroy at Shinnecock?

Rory McIlroy (+1200) seeks his second U.S. Open title since winning the event in 2011. Historically, this is his weakest major, marked by five missed cuts—including one at Shinnecock in 2018—and a tie for his fewest top-five finishes with four.

According to the provided data, McIlroy ranks in the top five for SG: total, SG: tee-to-green, and SG: off-the-tee. However, he ranks 125th in driving accuracy percentage, which could be a liability against Shinnecock’s thick five-inch rough.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does the 2026 U.S. Open begin?
The tournament begins on Thursday, June 18, 2026.

Who is the betting favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with odds of +550 via FanDuel.

How many times has Shinnecock Hills hosted the U.S. Open?
The 2026 event marks the sixth time the course has hosted the major.

Which golfer’s performance at Shinnecock do you think will be most impacted by the five-inch rough?