China may yet persuade Southeast Asia to support new maritime order
China’s Rising Tide: A New Maritime Order in Southeast Asia?
Step by step, China is establishing itself as a dominant force in Southeast Asia’s maritime landscape. This isn’t simply about naval power; it’s a comprehensive strategy encompassing economic investment, security partnerships, and a vision for a regional maritime order under its leadership. But the path to acceptance isn’t smooth, hinging on China’s behavior in the disputed South China Sea and the ability of alternative partners to offer viable options.
The Blue Economy as a Cornerstone
China’s strategy centers heavily on the “blue economy” – sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth. Investments are projected to reach between US$2.0 trillion and US$3.7 trillion (approximately A$2.8 trillion and A$5.2 trillion) between 2020 and 2050, jointly with ASEAN nations. This includes initiatives like establishing green shipping lanes in the Strait of Malacca and supporting eco-friendly aquaculture. These projects align with the interests of many Southeast Asian countries, offering a path to economic development while addressing environmental concerns.
This focus is formalized in the latest Plan of Action to Implement the ASEAN-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2026-2030). China isn’t just investing financially; it’s actively seeking leadership roles in maritime governance, bidding to host the secretariat for the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty – a move contrasted with the United States’ withdrawal from 66 international treaties in January.
South China Sea Tensions: The Biggest Obstacle
Despite these economic inroads, the ongoing disputes in the South China Sea remain a significant hurdle. China’s expansive claims to nearly all of the waters continue to fuel tensions. However, growing uncertainty about the reliability of the United States as an ally is prompting some Southeast Asian nations to prioritize cooperation with China.
Indonesia, for example, has entered into a joint development project with China in overlapping claim areas, despite concerns about its legality. Malaysia and Cambodia conducted military drills with China last year. This shift reflects a pragmatic calculation by some nations, weighing the benefits of economic partnership against the risks of confrontation.
Doubts About US Commitment
Concerns about US reliability are particularly acute. A leaked document revealed that Vietnamese defense officials are even contingency planning for a potential “second US invasion,” highlighting a deep-seated distrust. Vietnam has strengthened ties with China, conducting its first joint military drill last year.
China’s ambition to create a ‘Maritime Community with a Shared Future’ dates back to 2019, but skepticism was widespread due to its assertive behavior in the South China Sea and the perceived strength of the US alliance. Now, with a less predictable US foreign policy, that calculus is changing.
What’s Needed for a China-Led Order to Succeed?
The success of a China-led maritime order in Southeast Asia depends on two key factors. First, the availability of viable alternatives to China for maritime cooperation. Many nations are questioning the US commitment, particularly under the current administration, and the ability of other middle powers like Australia or Europe to provide comparable resources. Second, and crucially, China must moderate its behavior in the South China Sea. Continued aggression and bullying will inevitably breed resistance.
If China demonstrates a willingness to cooperate and respect international law, it could pave the way for broader acceptance of its proposed maritime order. However, the region’s future remains delicately balanced, contingent on both China’s actions and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the ‘blue economy’? The blue economy refers to the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, encompassing fisheries, tourism, shipping, and renewable energy.
- What are the main disputes in the South China Sea? China claims nearly all of the South China Sea, conflicting with the claims of several other countries in the region, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.
- What is ASEAN’s role in this situation? ASEAN is seeking to balance its relationships with both China and the United States, promoting regional stability and cooperation.
- Is the US withdrawing from international organizations? The United States withdrew from 66 international treaties in January.
Pro Tip: Keep an eye on joint military exercises between China and Southeast Asian nations. These are strong indicators of shifting security alignments.
Did you know? China and ASEAN are jointly investing between US$2.0 trillion and US$3.7 trillion in the blue economy between 2020 and 2050.
What are your thoughts on China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia? Share your perspective in the comments below, and explore more articles on geopolitical trends for deeper insights.