Column: Easygoing, safe-bet governor may be what California voters want
The California gubernatorial race has undergone a dramatic shift, with 68-year-old Xavier Becerra emerging as an unlikely frontrunner in the pre-primary sprint. Despite a lack of flashy charisma, the former U.S. Health secretary and California attorney general has leveraged his extensive experience in Sacramento to capture voter interest.
Recent polling from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and Emerson College reflects Becerra’s rise from relative irrelevancy in March to the lead by late May. His momentum was bolstered following the abrupt withdrawal of then-Rep. Eric Swalwell, whose voter base largely migrated to Becerra.
The Strategy of Stability
Experts suggest that Becerra’s appeal lies in his predictable, “no-drama” approach, which contrasts with the political fatigue many voters feel regarding national figures. By emphasizing his history of suing the first Trump administration over 120 times, he has solidified his standing among Democratic voters who prioritize opposition to former President Trump.
However, the campaign remains a high-stakes, multi-candidate contest. Republican former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer remain in the mix, with the top two vote-getters guaranteed a spot on the November general election ballot.
Did You Know? Among the last nine California governors, only Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan were elected without having served prior stints in the state government in Sacramento.
Expert Insight: The success of a “boring” candidate suggests that voters may be prioritizing steady, established experience over celebrity or novelty. If Becerra advances, his challenge will be navigating a general election against a well-funded opponent like Steyer, whose financial resources could shift the dynamic of the race significantly.
Potential Scenarios for November
The final composition of the November ballot remains fluid. While earlier speculation suggested a lockout of Democrats by two Republican candidates, recent data indicates that two Democrats could potentially face off in the general election.
If Becerra secures a spot, he may face different challenges depending on his opponent. Analysts expect that while he might be a strong favourite against a GOP candidate, a contest against Steyer—who possesses significant personal wealth—could result in a more contentious and expensive battle.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Xavier Becerra considered a “safe” candidate?
Becerra is viewed as a safe bet due to his extensive resume, which includes roles as U.S. Health secretary, California attorney general, longtime congressman, and state assemblyman. His “cool and calm” temperament is seen as an asset to voters who are exhausted by political volatility.
What impact did the withdrawal of Eric Swalwell have on the race?
Swalwell’s exit from the race in April allowed much of his voter support to shift toward Becerra. This transition helped Becerra gain momentum, attract new campaign donors, and secure endorsements from various interest groups.
How do candidates qualify for the general election?
The top two vote-getters in the primary election, regardless of their political party, qualify to move on to the November general election ballot.
Do you believe that experience in state government is the most important quality for a governor, or should voters prioritize other traits?