expert reaction to population-based observational study non recorded prevalence and diagnostic trends on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder
Rates of diagnosed ADHD in England are significantly lower than academic expectations, according to a population-based study published June 15, 2026, in The Lancet Regional Health Europe. The research indicates a substantial gap in diagnoses, particularly among women and older adults, suggesting a widespread scale of undiagnosed cases across the population.
Why are ADHD diagnosis rates lower than expected?
The study, titled “Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in children and adults in England, 2000–2025,” analyzed routinely collected primary care data. Researchers found that recorded diagnosis rates in medical records do not tally with the academic consensus on actual prevalence.
Dr. Rachel Moseley, a Principal Academic in Psychology at Bournemouth University, stated that prevalence estimation is a complex science. She noted that some assessment measures are less sensitive to neurodivergence in girls and women, which may contribute to the discrepancy.
According to Moseley, this gap is most pronounced in older age groups and those assigned female at birth. She noted that the scale of undiagnosed ADHD in the UK is “substantive.”
What are the consequences of undiagnosed ADHD?
Failure to diagnose “milder” cases—where differences are less extreme or noticeable to others—carries significant costs. Moseley cited research from French et al. (2023) and Moseley et al. (2025) to highlight “devastating costs” to the individual.
Societal costs are also high. A June 2025 report from the UK’S Independent ADHD Taskforce linked undiagnosed cases to higher numbers of young people who are NEET (not in education, employment, or training), as well as struggles with addiction and mental health conditions.
Moseley stated that diagnosis is widely recognized to save lives, specifically regarding suicide prevention. She argued that recognizing these struggles is a critical step toward providing necessary support.
How does this study address concerns about rising diagnoses?
The findings arrive as popular media characterizes the increase in ADHD diagnoses as spurious. A March 2026 Interim Report from the UK’s Independent Review into Mental Health Conditions, Autism and ADHD noted concerns that people are “incentivised” to seek financial or practical benefits.
Moseley contested this framing. She stated that the rising incidence of people seeking diagnosis likely reflects children, teenagers, and adults who are struggling to cope without accommodations.
The research corroborates existing work by Cortese et al. (2026) and McKechnie et al. (2023) regarding the volume of undiagnosed individuals in the UK.
What may happen next?
Medical providers could see an increase in screenings for older adults and women as the gap in diagnosis becomes more widely recognized. This shift may lead to a higher volume of patients seeking accommodations and support services.
Healthcare systems may need to update assessment measures to better identify neurodivergence in females. Such changes could potentially reduce the societal costs associated with addiction and unemployment among the undiagnosed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which groups have the largest gap between actual and diagnosed ADHD?
The discrepancy is particularly great in older people and those assigned female at birth.
What are the societal risks of missing an ADHD diagnosis?
According to the UK’S Independent ADHD Taskforce (June 2025), failures to diagnose can lead to higher rates of addiction, mental health conditions, and young people becoming NEET.
Is the rise in ADHD diagnoses due to “medicalisation” of everyday problems?
Dr. Rachel Moseley states that rising diagnosis requests likely reflect individuals struggling to cope without support and accommodations, rather than the “medicalisation” of daily difficulties.
How should healthcare systems balance the need for rigorous diagnosis with the goal of reducing under-diagnosis in overlooked groups?