Germany’s Rise: Avoiding a New European Power Struggle | Foreign Affairs

Warnings of a future European war echo through history, but the nature of the threat has dramatically shifted. In 1921, French military leader Ferdinand Foch cautioned that a resurgent Germany, left unchecked after World War I, would inevitably lead to another global conflict. Today, the concern isn’t Germany growing too strong, but potentially becoming *too* vital to European security, and the implications of that shift.

From Disarmament to Re-armament

Following Germany’s defeat in World War I, the Treaty of Versailles imposed disarmament. However, Foch foresaw the consequences of inaction, predicting Germany would rebuild its military if the Allied powers didn’t enforce the treaty’s terms. His prediction proved accurate. By the late 1930s, Germany had rearmed and embarked on a path of aggression, ultimately sparking World War II.

After its second defeat, Germany faced a different fate. The Allies occupied and divided the country, dismantling its armed forces and defence industry. When Germany was eventually allowed to re-establish its military, it was under strict oversight. Even after reunification, limitations were placed on the size of its armed forces, with British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher voicing concerns in 1989 that a larger Germany could destabilize international security.

Did You Know? In 1989, Margaret Thatcher warned that a reunified Germany “would undermine the stability of the whole international situation and could endanger our security.”

A Shift in Perspective

Today, the narrative has flipped. With Russia’s aggression against Ukraine dominating the European landscape, the focus has shifted from containing Germany to encouraging its military strength. In 2011, Poland’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, remarkably stated he “fear[ed] German inaction” more than German power, a sentiment reflecting a growing concern about the continent’s overall defence capabilities.

This sentiment has gained traction. In 2024, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte urged Germany to “spend more and produce more” militarily. Germany is now responding with its Zeitenwende—a 2022 commitment to becoming a leading defence power in Europe. In 2025, Germany surpassed all other European nations in total defence spending, and its military budget is projected to reach $189 billion by 2029, more than tripling the 2022 level. The country is even considering reinstating mandatory conscription.

The Risks of a Powerful Germany

While many welcome Germany’s increased military investment as a bulwark against Russia, concerns remain. An unchecked, dominant Germany could foster divisions within Europe. France and Poland, despite Sikorski’s earlier statement, harbor unease about Germany’s growing power, potentially leading to competition and a fragmented defence posture.

This risk is amplified by the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD, critical of the European Union and NATO, holds nationalistic views and has even made claims regarding the territory of neighboring countries. An AfD-led Germany could potentially use its military power to coerce other nations, escalating tensions and conflict.

Expert Insight: The historical context reveals a cyclical pattern of European security concerns surrounding Germany. While current circumstances demand a strong German defence contribution, the potential for renewed rivalry underscores the need for careful integration and shared decision-making to avoid repeating past mistakes.

The Path Forward: Integration, Not Isolation

Despite the need for a stronger German military, Berlin must acknowledge the potential risks and work to embed its power within integrated European military structures. Germany’s neighbors must also clearly articulate their vision for defence integration. Without such collaboration, German rearmament could result in a more divided and vulnerable Europe.

Historically, Germany has integrated its economy and defence apparatus into Europe, rejecting independent military power in favor of collaboration within NATO or a European army. However, the diminishing U.S. Commitment to Europe could revive old rivalries. Germany’s current focus on domestic defence industries, exploiting EU competition rules, further exacerbates these concerns.

A solution lies in “golden handcuffs”—greater integration through mechanisms like joint European debt for defence, integrated defence industries, and deeper military cooperation. This would embed German power within a collective framework, mitigating fears of dominance and potentially even hedging against a shift in German leadership towards the AfD.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Ferdinand Foch’s warning in 1921?

Ferdinand Foch warned that if the Allied powers did not maintain enforcement of the Treaty of Versailles and allowed Germany to rebuild its military, another world war was inevitable.

What is the Zeitenwende?

The Zeitenwende is Germany’s 2022 commitment to becoming a leading defence power in Europe, resulting in significantly increased military spending and a focus on strengthening its armed forces.

What role could the AfD play in European security?

If the AfD were to gain power in Germany, it could potentially lead to a reversal of Germany’s integration into European structures, strained relations with neighbors, and a more nationalistic and potentially aggressive foreign policy.

As Germany’s military power grows, will it prioritize collective European security or pursue its own national interests?