Iran is betting that Trump does not have a plan for regime change

The stage is set for a high-stakes diplomatic encounter between Iran and the United States, but the backdrop is one of escalating tensions and a surprising level of defiance from Tehran. Despite significant setbacks in recent months – including military strikes and crippling economic sanctions – Iran appears to be approaching Friday’s negotiations with positions largely unchanged from previous, stalled talks.

A Shifting Power Dynamic

The current situation is marked by a seeming paradox. Over the past eight months, Iran has experienced considerable weakening. A 12-day conflict with Israel revealed vulnerabilities in its air defenses and intelligence capabilities, resulting in the deaths of over 30 Iranian military commanders and 160 strikes on military targets. In June, the US launched attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, significantly damaging its nuclear programme.

Did You Know? In January, the US imposed a 25% tariff on goods from countries that continue to trade with Iran, further tightening economic pressure.

Negotiating from a Position of Strength?

Despite this pressure, Iran’s negotiators are entering talks with what some observers describe as a bullish stance. Wendy Sherman, the chief negotiator for the US nuclear deal between 2013-2015, recalled that Iran’s negotiating team was known for being legalistic, tenacious, and always seeking “one more thing.” This approach suggests a confidence that is, at the very least, unexpected given the recent challenges faced by the country.

Iran’s currency has more than halved in value since June, and food inflation is rapidly increasing. These economic pressures contributed to nationwide protests in January, met with a forceful response from Iranian security services. The government continues to censor the internet more than a month after the protests began, indicating ongoing anxiety about public sentiment.

What Could Happen Next?

Several explanations are offered for Iran’s unwavering position. One possibility, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, is that Iran’s security elite believes former President Trump is unlikely to risk a prolonged and costly war. They may be attempting to make any potential conflict as unpredictable, messy, and expensive as possible to deter action.

Another factor is the assessment that Trump lacks a clear strategy for regime change within Iran or any current interest in collaborating with opposition groups. Marco Rubio, speaking to the Senate foreign relations committee, acknowledged the US does not have a concrete plan for what would follow the potential fall of the current Iranian leadership, comparing the situation to the complexities of Venezuela.

Expert Insight: The apparent confidence of Iranian negotiators, despite recent setbacks, highlights the inherent difficulties in predicting the behavior of a regime that appears to prioritize resilience and maximalist bargaining positions, even in the face of significant internal and external pressures.

While some supporters of figures like Reza Pahlavi believe a US attack could galvanize the Iranian population, others, including Mir Hossein Mousavi and the Group of 17, advocate for a peaceful and democratic transition. These dissenting voices emphasize the need for a solution determined by the Iranian people themselves, but disagree on the path forward.

The Role of Oman

The upcoming talks are scheduled to take place in Oman. However, Iran appears determined to dictate the terms of the negotiations, including the venue and the primary topics of discussion. Whether these talks will proceed smoothly remains uncertain, and the possibility of collapse looms.

Frequently Asked Questions

What military actions has Iran faced recently?

Iran engaged in a 12-day war with Israel, during which over 160 strikes were conducted on Iranian military targets and more than 30 Iranian military commanders were killed. The US launched attacks on three major Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz – in June.

How has Iran’s economy been affected?

Since June, Iran’s currency has more than halved in value against the dollar, and food inflation is heading towards three figures. These economic pressures contributed to nationwide protests in January.

What are some differing opinions within Iran regarding potential foreign intervention?

Some, like supporters of Reza Pahlavi, believe a US attack could galvanize the population. Others, including Mir Hossein Mousavi and the Group of 17, reject external intervention and advocate for a peaceful, democratic transition determined by the Iranian people.

As Iran and the US prepare to meet, the outcome remains uncertain. Will Tehran’s hardline stance lead to a breakdown in talks, or will a path toward de-escalation and a potential agreement emerge?

Iran is betting that Trump does not have a plan for regime change | Iran