Last Nuclear Treaty Between US and Russia Expires – Fears of New Arms Race Grow

The Nuclear Landscape Shifts: What the End of New START Means for Global Security

The final nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia, New START, has expired, raising fears of a renewed arms race. As of today, February 5, 2026, Notice no longer international restrictions limiting the number of nuclear weapons held by the two superpowers. This development marks a significant turning point in international peace and security, according to UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

A History of Disarmament: From START to New START

The original START agreement was signed in 1991, aiming to reduce nuclear arsenals to under 6,000 warheads. This was followed by New START, signed in 2010, which limited strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 per country and established a system of inspections, and dialogue. These treaties were central to easing Cold War tensions and reducing the risk of miscalculation.

However, the landscape of arms control has been eroding in recent years. The INF Treaty, which banned intermediate-range missiles in Europe, collapsed in 2019. The Open Skies Treaty, allowing surveillance flights over each other’s territory, also fell apart after the US withdrew in 2020, followed by Russia in 2021. The CFE Treaty, limiting conventional forces in Europe, has been stalled since 2011.

Russia’s Position and the Ukraine Factor

Russia has indicated it will not reconsider its position on New START unless the United States changes its policies regarding Ukraine. Sergey Ryabkov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, stated this condition for potential future negotiations. The Russian Foreign Ministry has stated its intention to “act responsibly and cautiously” despite the treaty’s expiration.

The Growing Nuclear Triad and Global Implications

Together, Russia and the United States possess approximately 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, with Russia holding over 4,300 warheads and the US around 3,700. The expiration of New START raises concerns about a potential escalation, not just between these two nations, but also with China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. Beijing has also declined invitations from the US for arms control talks, seemingly aiming for parity with the US and Russia.

Experts warn that the breakdown of arms control mechanisms represents “one of the most dangerous features of the current global security situation,” as stated by former UK Defence Chief Tony Radakin. The risk of nuclear weapon use is now considered the highest it has been in decades.

What’s Next? A Return to Dialogue?

Despite the current impasse, there are glimmers of potential for future negotiation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has hinted at the possibility of a new agreement to control the quantity of nuclear weapons. However, the path forward remains uncertain, with differing demands from each side – the US seeking inclusion of China in any new treaty, and Russia insisting on the involvement of France and the UK.

FAQ

What was the New START treaty?

A nuclear arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia, limiting strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 per country.

Why has New START expired?

The US and Russia failed to agree on an extension or renegotiation of the treaty.

What are the risks of New START’s expiration?

Increased risk of a nuclear arms race and potential conflict due to the lack of limitations on nuclear weapons.

What is the current state of nuclear arms control?

Several key arms control treaties have collapsed in recent years, leading to a more unstable global security environment.

Pro Tip: Stay informed about developments in arms control by following reputable sources like the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs.

What are your thoughts on the future of nuclear arms control? Share your opinions in the comments below.