Musk from 10% chance of success to $2 trillion valuation

SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion in the largest IPO on record. The company reached a closing valuation of $2.1 trillion, making founder Elon Musk the first trillionaire in history, according to market data.

How did the SpaceX IPO perform on its first day?

SpaceX shares closed their first day of trading up 19%, reaching a valuation of $2.1 trillion. This valuation represents a multiple of 112 times the company’s revenue from the previous year, according to financial reports.

The company priced the offering at $135 per share. According to investment banker Lloyd Greif of Greif & Co., the deal was not priced based on market forces but on the desires of Elon Musk.

The offering provided massive windfalls for early investors. Alphabet’s stake surpassed $100 billion, while Valor Equity Partners holds a stake worth over $80 billion, according to company data. Additionally, the IPO reportedly created approximately 4,400 millionaires among current and former employees.

Did You Know? Venture capitalist Steve Jurvetson reported on X that underwriters gained access to additional shares only on the condition that the bankers wore green and white Nike sneakers decorated with the company logo.

How does the SpaceX IPO compare to Facebook’s debut?

The scale of the SpaceX debut significantly exceeds that of Facebook’s 2012 IPO. While Facebook raised $16 billion and ended its first day worth $100 billion, SpaceX raised $75 billion and reached a valuation of $2.1 trillion.

Trading volume was similarly high, with over 500 million SpaceX shares changing hands compared to roughly 580 million for Facebook. However, SpaceX exhibits much tighter founder control.

At the time of its IPO, Mark Zuckerberg controlled 56% of Facebook’s voting power. Elon Musk controls more than 82% of SpaceX’s voting power, according to company filings.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter notes that the extreme concentration of voting power and the lack of a traditional price-gauging roadshow signal a shift in IPO dynamics. When a founder maintains over 80% control, the public market essentially accepts the founder’s valuation as the baseline, regardless of traditional revenue metrics or historical losses.

Why is the SpaceX valuation facing skepticism?

Financial research firm CFRA issued a sell rating and a price target of $115 shortly after the debut. Analysts at the firm stated that the company’s long-term strategy remains heavily dependent on the Starship rocket, which could become a “bottleneck” for various initiatives, according to analyst Keith Snyder.

The company’s financials show a $4.9 billion loss last year and total losses exceeding $41 billion since its 2002 founding. While Starlink is the only profitable segment, the AI unit—acquired via xAI—is described as a “money pit” currently leasing capacity to Google and Anthropic.

NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran called SpaceX’s stated $28.5 trillion total addressable market a “hallucination,” telling CNBC he would be embarrassed to publish such a figure.

What are the social and political reactions to Musk’s trillionaire status?

The IPO triggered criticism regarding wealth disparity amid inflation caused by the war in Iran. Senator Bernie Sanders described Musk’s status as a “call to action” to address unprecedented income inequality.

California Governor Gavin Newsom wrote on X that Americans are struggling with the cost of gas and groceries while Musk became a trillionaire. In Times Square, the group Safe AI Now displayed an inflatable effigy of Musk to protest the company’s AI safety record.

What could happen next for SpaceX and the AI sector?

The success of the SpaceX offering may increase confidence for other AI giants. Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld stated he would “definitely bet” that OpenAI and Anthropic will go public in 2026, noting both have confidentially filed IPO paperwork.

There is also speculation regarding a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC that while there are synergies between the two companies, her current priority is production and broadband access.

Future growth may depend on the viability of Starship and the expansion of Starlink. Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire believes the company could generate hundreds of billions in revenue by 2030, comparing the delivery of Starship to the introduction of railroads.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much money did SpaceX raise in its IPO?

SpaceX raised $75 billion, the largest IPO on record.

What is the current valuation of SpaceX?

After the close of trading on Friday, June 12, 2026, the company was worth $2.1 trillion.

Who are the major institutional beneficiaries of the IPO?

Alphabet’s stake grew past $100 billion, and Valor Equity Partners holds a stake worth over $80 billion.

Do you believe a company’s valuation should be based on market forces or the vision of its founder?