Myanmar Election: Military-Backed Party Set to Win Amid Civil War

Voting has concluded in Myanmar following the final phase of a general election widely criticized as lacking legitimacy. The polls, held across 60 townships including Yangon and Mandalay, took place amidst an ongoing civil war and are expected to deliver a landslide victory to a party backed by the military.

A Contested Election

The election has been met with significant skepticism. Critics argue the process is designed to solidify military rule, nearly five years after the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi was ousted on February 1, 2021. The National League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, has been dissolved, and Aung San Suu Kyi herself remains in detention.

Did You Know? The previous two phases of the election saw a voter turnout of approximately 55 percent, significantly lower than the 70 percent recorded in the 2020 and 2015 general elections.

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), backed by the military, is currently leading the polls. As of reports, the USDP has secured 193 out of 209 seats in the lower house and 52 out of 78 seats in the upper house. Combined with the 166 seats allocated to the military, this gives them a total of just under 400 seats, surpassing the 294 needed to gain power.

Concerns Over Fairness and Freedom

The run-up to the election was marked by restrictions on dissent. A new Election Protection Law imposed harsh penalties for criticism of the polls, leading to over 400 people being charged for activities like distributing leaflets or posting online. Tom Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, has called the election “fraudulent,” stating that “only an illegitimate government can emerge from an illegitimate election.”

Expert Insight: The imposition of the Election Protection Law and the charging of individuals for expressing dissent highlight a clear effort to control the narrative and suppress opposition, raising serious questions about the integrity of the electoral process.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has indicated it will not certify the election results, citing concerns about the lack of inclusive and free participation. Malaysian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohamad Hasan stated that ASEAN did not send observers.

Despite the widespread criticism, some citizens participated in the voting process. Zaw Ko Ko Myint, a 53-year-old teacher in Mandalay, stated, “Although I do not expect much, we want to see a better country.”

What’s Next?

Official results are expected late this week, though the USDP could claim victory as early as Monday. The military has announced that the new parliament will convene in March, with the new government taking office in April. It is widely expected that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who currently heads the military government, will assume the presidency.

However, the international community’s rejection of the election’s legitimacy could lead to continued isolation for Myanmar. The ongoing civil war, which has resulted in at least 7,705 deaths and 22,745 detentions according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, or potentially over 90,000 deaths according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, is likely to continue, regardless of the election outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current status of Aung San Suu Kyi?

Aung San Suu Kyi remains in detention, and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), has been dissolved.

How many seats are needed to form a government in Myanmar?

A total of 294 seats are needed to come to power.

What has been the international response to the election?

The UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar has called the election “fraudulent,” and ASEAN has indicated it will not certify the results.

Given the deeply contested nature of this election and the ongoing conflict, what does the future hold for the people of Myanmar?