Too many satellites? Earth’s orbit is on track for a catastrophe – but we can stop it

The future of data storage and connectivity is rapidly expanding beyond Earth’s atmosphere. On January 30, 2026, SpaceX filed an application with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to launch a megaconstellation of up to one million satellites. The stated purpose of this ambitious project is to power data centres in space.

A New Era of Space Infrastructure

SpaceX’s proposal details satellites operating between 500 and 2,000 kilometres in low Earth orbit, with some orbits designed for near-constant sunlight exposure. The public currently has the opportunity to submit comments on this proposal to the FCC. This filing is part of a larger trend, as exponentially growing numbers of satellite megaconstellation proposals are being submitted.

Did You Know? As of February 2026, approximately 14,000 active satellites are currently in orbit.

These proposed satellites are designed for a single purpose and have relatively short lifecycles of around five years. Currently, there are 1.23 million proposed satellite projects in various stages of development, adding to the existing 14,000 active satellites. The current regulatory process primarily focuses on technical aspects of these proposals.

Impacts Beyond Technology

A significant concern is that the approval process largely overlooks cultural, spiritual, and environmental impacts. Experts suggest these considerations are crucial. The scale of these projects is poised to fundamentally alter the night sky for generations. Satellites in low Earth orbit reflect sunlight for approximately two hours after sunset and before sunrise, appearing as moving points of light.

Despite efforts to reduce brightness, these satellites are visible. Projections indicate that future deployments will significantly increase light pollution. In 2021, astronomers estimated that, within a decade, one in every fifteen points of light in the night sky could be a moving satellite – a calculation based on 65,000 proposed satellites at the time. With millions more now proposed, the impact on the night sky may be irreversible.

Expert Insight: The continuous replacement and expansion of these megaconstellations suggests a long-term, industrialised presence in the night sky, potentially establishing a “shifting baseline syndrome” where each generation accepts a progressively more degraded view of the stars.

Houston, We Have a Problem

The sheer volume of proposed satellites raises concerns from multiple sectors. Scientific concerns include bright reflections and radio emissions that could disrupt astronomy. Industry experts also point to the lack of unified space traffic management, similar to systems used in aviation. The risk of Kessler syndrome – a runaway chain reaction of collisions – is also increasing, with approximately 50,000 pieces of debris already in orbit. Data suggests a major collision could occur in as little as 3.8 days if collision avoidance measures are not maintained.

Beyond the technical challenges, cultural impacts are also significant. Satellite light pollution could negatively affect Indigenous uses of the night sky for oral traditions, navigation, hunting, and spiritual practices. Launching these satellites also requires substantial fossil fuel consumption, potentially damaging the ozone layer. The current plan for end-of-life disposal – burning satellites in the atmosphere – could deposit vast quantities of metals into the stratosphere, leading to further ozone depletion and chemical reactions.

The Need for Comprehensive Regulation

Current regulations primarily address technical aspects, such as radio frequency allocation and launch safety. They do not adequately address the broader impacts on scientific study, navigation, Indigenous practices, and cultural continuity. A “Dark Skies Impact Assessment,” as proposed by space lawyers Gregory Radisic and Natalie Gillespie, could provide a systematic way to identify and consider all potential impacts before a constellation is approved.

Such an assessment would involve gathering evidence from all stakeholders, modelling cumulative effects on sky visibility and orbital congestion, defining criteria for unobstructed sky visibility, and identifying mitigation pathways. The findings would need to be transparent, independently reviewed, and directly linked to licensing decisions. This assessment is not intended as a veto, but rather as a tool to clarify trade-offs and improve decision-making.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a megaconstellation?

A megaconstellation is a large grouping of satellites designed to operate with a single purpose, such as providing internet access or powering data centres in space. These satellites typically have short lifecycles and are designed for continuous replacement and expansion.

What is Kessler syndrome?

Kessler syndrome is a runaway chain reaction of collisions in orbit. As the number of satellites and debris increases, the risk of collisions rises, creating more debris and increasing the likelihood of further collisions.

What is a Dark Skies Impact Assessment?

A Dark Skies Impact Assessment is a proposed systematic process to identify, document, and meaningfully consider all the impacts of a proposed satellite constellation before it is approved, including cultural, scientific, and environmental effects.

As the development of space infrastructure continues, the question is not whether the night sky will change, but how we can ensure those changes are made responsibly. Now is the time for governments and international institutions to establish fair processes before these changes become permanent.