Ukraine War: Russia’s Slowing Advance & Battlefield Claims – Jan 2024 Update
Despite the severe cold across much of Ukraine, Russian military operations have not decreased in intensity. However, the pace of Russia’s advance has slowed in early 2026, according to Ukrainian and independent sources.
Russian Advances and Disputed Claims
Russian forces reportedly seized 245 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in January, according to the Ukrainian military project Deep State – half the amount gained in December and November. Russia, through the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, claims to have taken over 500 square kilometers and 17 settlements. However, many of these claims have not been independently verified.
Reports from the Russian command often portray small infantry penetrations into Ukrainian defenses as successful offensives and complete territorial control, when in reality, these areas often remain in a “grey zone” or under Ukrainian control.
The Situation Around Kupiansk
The situation around Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region is a notable example of discrepancies in reporting. A Russian Telegram channel, “Military Informant,” stated on January 27th that the situation in the Kupiansk direction exists in a “parallel reality” disconnected from objective facts. Last year, Russian command claimed Kupiansk was captured and Ukrainian forces were encircled, but Ukrainian counterattacks forced Russian troops to withdraw north, leaving Kupiansk and surrounding areas under Ukrainian control.
Despite this, the Russian General Staff continues to assert success. During a recent inspection of the “West” grouping, Gerasimov unexpectedly announced the capture of Kupiansk-Uzlovoi, a key logistical hub for Ukrainian forces defending east of the Oskil River. Its loss would create significant, even catastrophic, problems for Ukrainian forces.
However, maps from both Ukrainian and Russian military sources show that the settlement and railway station do not even border the front line. “Military Informant” suggests there may be an “alternate side” to Kupiansk where these “liberations” and “encirclements” occur.
Video footage shows a Ukrainian battalion commander, Roman Kovalev, walking calmly in the centre of Kupiansk-Uzlovoi without a helmet or body armor, with no sounds of combat audible.
Orders to “Restore the Situation” and Escalating Attacks
The situation near Kupiansk remains concerning for the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian military analyst Konstantin Mashovets reports that Russian assault infantry have reached the eastern outskirts of the village of Kurilovka, advancing along the Lozovatka River from Peschanoye – approximately 4.5 km from Kupiansk-Uzlovoi. The command of the Russian “West” grouping has reportedly received orders to “restore the situation” in the Kupiansk area, aligning the reality on the ground with publicly announced successes.
Russia is also applying pressure on other fronts, attempting to create buffer zones in the Sumy region and around Volchansk and north of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. The Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions have also seen increased attacks.
Challenges with Starlink Technology
At the request of the Ukrainian side, SpaceX, the company providing Starlink satellite communication systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has limited the maximum speed of terminal movement to 100 km/h. This action was taken because Russian forces began acquiring Starlink terminals through third parties and mounting them on drones – “Molniya,” BM-35, and “Geran”/“Shahed” – for strikes deep within Ukrainian territory.
These drones, equipped with Starlink, have reliable real-time control, fly at low altitudes, and are difficult to jam. The speed restriction renders Starlink terminals on drones ineffective. Ukraine’s Minister of defence, Mikhail Fedorov, announced that all terminals not undergoing verification and inclusion in a “white list” will be blocked.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current status of the Russian offensive?
The pace of the Russian offensive has slowed in early 2026, though operations continue. Russia claims significant gains, but these are often disputed.
What is the significance of Kupiansk-Uzlovoi?
Kupiansk-Uzlovoi is a key logistical hub for Ukrainian forces defending east of the Oskil River. Its capture would pose significant challenges for Ukraine.
How is Russia using Starlink technology?
Russian forces have been acquiring Starlink terminals through third parties and mounting them on drones to improve their control and effectiveness, prompting SpaceX to implement speed restrictions.
As the conflict evolves, will Ukraine be able to maintain its defensive positions against Russia’s continued advances?