US Economy: Jobs & Inflation Data to Watch This Week

Investors and policymakers are preparing for a series of US economic reports this week, with particular attention focused on data related to employment and inflation. These reports are considered especially important indicators of the nation’s economic health.

Employment Trends

Recent data indicates a shifting landscape in the US labour market. In December, both total nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate changed little, with employment increasing by 50,000 and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4 percent. Employment gains were notable in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance, while retail trade experienced job losses.

Did You Know? The Job Openings and labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was delayed due to an extended government shutdown.

Slowing Job Growth

The pace of job creation has slowed. The US economy added an estimated 50,000 jobs in December, a decrease from the revised 56,000 jobs added in November. In the first half of 2025, total nonfarm payrolls grew by an average of approximately 130,000 jobs per month, lower than the average monthly gain of 168,000 in 2024.

Expert Insight: The slowing pace of job growth, coupled with stable inflation, suggests the US economy may be operating near its natural rate of unemployment, a level consistent with price stability.

Inflation and Economic Outlook

In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, and increased 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. Economists anticipate stronger US growth, but also expect weak job gains and potentially persistent inflation. Projections suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 125,100 in 2025 and 55,200 in 2026.

Future Possibilities

The employment projections for the current and following three quarters have been revised downward. If these trends continue, it could indicate a further slowdown in economic growth. However, surging business investment may offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

What data releases are coming up?

This week includes releases for employment and inflation data.

What was the unemployment rate in December?

The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in December.

How many jobs were added in December?

An estimated 50,000 jobs were added in December.

How might these economic indicators influence future investment strategies?