US intelligence agencies assess Iran can shut down Strait of Hormuz at will
U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran now possesses the capability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will, according to three sources familiar with the findings. This development has introduced new risks to global energy markets and regional stability, as the waterway serves as a critical artery for oil and gas shipments. A senior U.S. official confirmed that Iran’s access to benefits under a framework agreement hinges on the strait remaining open and compliance with other terms.
The assessment comes amid ongoing negotiations to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, which aims to reopen the strait following months of conflict. However, U.S. intelligence suggests Iran could repeat its actions if conditions change, highlighting the country’s growing strategic leverage. One source described the situation as “a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” emphasizing how the war has reshaped Tehran’s calculations.
Why This Matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil supply, making its closure a potential catalyst for economic turmoil. U.S. officials note that Iran has demonstrated the ability to disrupt energy infrastructure in the Gulf, a tactic it may continue to exploit. The framework agreement, while intended to resolve immediate tensions, does not fully address long-term risks, as Iran retains a significant military stockpile including missiles, drones, and fast attack boats.
A second source highlighted that Iran’s actions have already drawn backlash from regional allies like China and Gulf states, which could deter further escalations. However, the U.S. acknowledges uncertainty over the agreement’s terms, with shipping experts warning that traffic through the strait may remain limited for weeks or months.
What May Happen Next
U.S. officials are exploring mechanisms to prevent future closures, but no consensus exists within the intelligence community. Some analysts suggest Iran may test its leverage by targeting the Bab-el-Mandeb strait via its Houthi proxies, a move that could severely disrupt global trade. However, sources indicate Iran is cautious about such steps, as they risk derailing ongoing diplomatic talks.
The U.S. has also considered multinational efforts to monitor the strait, though details remain unclear. A senior administration official stated the goal is to “create a mechanism that makes it impossible” for the strait to be closed again. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance noted that Iran’s willingness to negotiate reflects its perceived loss of leverage over the waterway.
Trump’s administration previously underestimated Iran’s resolve, believing the country would avoid closing the strait due to self-interest. However, U.S. officials now acknowledge that Iran’s actions were deliberate, driven by a perceived existential threat from the conflict.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz? The strait is a critical global trade route, with about 20% of the world’s oil passing through it daily. Its closure could cause severe economic disruptions.
How has Iran’s leverage changed? U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran now has the capability to close the strait at will, a shift that has altered regional power dynamics and raised concerns about future conflicts.
What are the risks of closing the Bab-el-Mandeb strait? Closing both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb would severely disrupt global trade, as the latter connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and is a key shipping lane for commodities.
As negotiations continue, the question remains: How will the U.S. and its allies ensure the strait remains open while managing Iran’s evolving strategic calculus?