Washington Summer Weather Outlook: Heat, El Niño, and Wildfire Risks

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts a warmer and drier-than-average summer for Washington, contributing to a long-term trend of lengthening seasons. This outlook coincides with a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño between November and January, which may extend dry conditions into 2027.

Why are Washington summers getting longer and hotter?

A study of worldwide temperature data by scientists at the University of British Columbia found that summers now start earlier, last longer, and are hotter. The research indicates summers are increasing by six days per decade, an increase from the four days per decade found in a study from the early 2010s.

Seattle’s temperature records reflect this shift. According to weather statistics for Western Washington, the city averaged three days per year with temperatures of 90 degrees or more during the 20th century.

That average rose to five days per year so far this century. In the last 10 years, the frequency of days reaching 90 degrees or higher has increased to eight per year.

What is the impact of the developing El Niño?

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific are rising, moving from a weak La Niña to a weak El Niño. The CPC reported a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño from November to January, which would rank among the largest events since 1950.

In the Pacific Northwest, El Niño winters typically bring warmer-than-average temperatures and often drier precipitation. This could result in another dismal mountain snowpack following four consecutive below-average seasons.

The CPC indicates the current summer will be warmer and drier-than-average. This pattern, coupled with El Niño, is likely to extend dry conditions into 2027 and could limit water supplies for the following summer.

How does this affect wildfire and drought risks?

Eastern Washington is currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. While Western Washington remains in better shape, some limited areas are in abnormally dry status.

The National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, states that all of Washington will face an above-average wildfire threat by August. Eastern Washington has already seen more than a dozen wildfires in recent weeks.

Past events, including the 2020 Labor Day weekend fires in Bonney Lake and recent fires in the Spokane area, resulted in burned homes due to wind-blown embers. Similar ember-driven damage occurred during the LA fires in January 2025.

How to reduce property risk

The National Fire Protection Association recommends building defensible space by removing stacked firewood from structures and clearing debris from roofs and gutters. Residents should also trim tree limbs to head level to prevent “ladder climbing” fires.

Other precautions include abiding by local burn bans and avoiding fireworks. The agency suggests tightening chains on towing vehicles to prevent pavement sparks and ensuring campfires are cold before departure.

What is the outlook for air quality?

Wildfires frequently lead to poor air quality. Western Washington has suffered from wildfire smoke in seven of the last nine summers, beginning with smoke from British Columbia in 2017.

The Washington Dept. of Ecology provides an air quality map for monitoring current readings. For protection, the use of N-95 masks is recommended to prevent minute wildfire particles from entering the lungs.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current drought status in Washington?
Eastern Washington is suffering from moderate to severe drought, while Western Washington has limited areas in abnormally dry status.

What is the likelihood of a strong El Niño this winter?
The CPC indicates a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, which would be among the largest since 1950.

How can homeowners prevent urban-interface wildfires?
Following National Fire Protection Association guidelines, homeowners can clear gutters, remove firewood from structures, and trim tree limbs up to head level.

How are you preparing your property or business for the upcoming summer weather trends?