Bulgarian Property Market: Shift to Owner-Occupancy in 2026

Recent data show that the balance between homes bought for personal use and those purchased as investments has shifted dramatically, with personal‑use purchases set to dominate the market in 2026.

Shift in Home‑Buying Trends

In the years leading up to 2026, purchases for personal occupancy and for investment were almost equal, with a slight edge to the former. Forecasts indicate that more than 70 % of all home purchases in 2026 will be for personal use, while transactions aimed at reselling at higher prices are expected to fall sharply.

Did You Know? In the past 12 months average incomes rose by 12 % while inflation increased by only 4.4 %.

Investment Deal Share Halves

“Investment deals are the segment of the market that will likely experience the most dramatic changes this year. Their share will fall by half – from an average of 25 % in 2025 to 10‑15 % in the coming months,” said Hergana Tenekedzhieva, executive director of АДРЕС. The trend applies to both new‑build purchases intended for exit after Act 16 and secondary‑market investors relying on natural price growth.

Bank Credit Outlook

Credit availability is expected to remain relatively stable, although the second half of 2025 and early 2026 show signs of a modest tightening in financing conditions.

Income Growth Outpacing Inflation

Over the last year, earnings outpaced inflation by almost threefold, with incomes climbing 12 % compared to a 4.4 % rise in consumer prices. This strong purchasing power has underpinned the market’s activity.

Regional Transaction Growth

“The past year was uneven in activity. While the start was highly dynamic, a slight dip appeared toward the end, yet the figures turned positive again. Major cities – Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas – recorded an 11 % rise in total transaction volume. Overall for Bulgaria the increase was 6 %, and in the key cities where the company operates the rise was 9 %,” Tenekedzhieva noted.

labour Market Influence

Market activity is closely tied to employment conditions. Although more than half of domestic companies (62 %) did not plan layoffs at year‑end, rising labour costs, difficulty finding qualified staff, and regulatory burdens could affect employment and, the property market.

Expert Insight: Samantha Carter observes that the projected swing toward personal‑use purchases suggests buyers are prioritizing stability over speculative gains. If credit tightening deepens, it may further dampen investor activity, reinforcing the shift. However, sustained income growth could keep demand robust, especially in the larger cities where price appreciation remains attractive.

Frequently Asked Questions

What proportion of home purchases are expected to be for personal use in 2026?

More than 70 % of all home purchases are forecasted to be for personal use.

How is the share of investment transactions expected to change?

The share of investment deals is expected to drop from an average of 25 % in 2025 to between 10 % and 15 % in the upcoming months.

What are the recent trends in transaction volume in major Bulgarian cities?

Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas recorded an 11 % increase in total transaction volume, while the overall national increase was 6 % and the main cities where the company operates saw a 9 % rise.

How might these evolving market dynamics influence your own housing decisions?