Colombia Gas Crisis: Declining Supply & Rising LNG Reliance

Colombia’s natural gas market is facing increasing pressure due to declining domestic production, a lack of new supply options, and a growing reliance on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The depletion of established fields, a pause on new exploration licenses, and infrastructure delays are converging at a time of rising demand, with regasification capacity currently serving as the primary short-term solution to potential supply shortages.

Domestic Production Decline and Policy Impacts

The decrease in domestic gas output began in 2023 and continues as mature fields – including Cusiana, Cupiagua, Chuchupa, and Ballena – enter a period of reduced production. Production fell from 28.7 MMcm/d in 2021 to 22.8 MMcm/d in 2025, a 22% reduction over four years. Since January 2023, the administration of President Gustavo Petro has ceased awarding new exploration contracts for oil, gas, and coal, aligning with climate goals and emissions reduction targets. While existing licenses remain valid, the absence of new exploration opportunities is expected to exacerbate the downturn in supply.

Did You Know? Colombia’s largest gas discovery in history, the Sirius offshore project, holds approximately 170 Bcm of reserves.

The Promise of Sirius and Current Shortfalls

The Sirius offshore project, located in Colombia’s Caribbean waters and operated by Petrobras (44.5%) and Ecopetrol (55.5%), represents the country’s primary long-term supply hope. Discovered in 2024, Sirius is expected to eventually support production of around 13 MMcm/d, with first output targeted for around 2031. Early commercialization began in October 2025, offering up to 7 MMcm/d under medium-term contracts. Its estimated breakeven price of $6 per MMBtu is competitive compared to recent regional LNG prices of $10–14 per MMBtu, though this advantage is subject to market fluctuations and requires significant investment in pipelines and processing facilities.

Before Sirius comes online, supply deficits are projected to widen. The national gas market administrator BMC forecasts a deficit of approximately 5.3 MMcm/day in 2026, increasing from 2.5 MMcm/d in 2025. With domestic production declining and exploration limited, Colombia is increasing its dependence on LNG imports.

LNG Infrastructure and Potential Alternatives

Currently, the Cartagena regasification terminal (SPEC) handles the majority of LNG imports. Originally intended as a backup for drought conditions, the terminal has been operating as a baseload supply source since 2023, running near its capacity of about 11.3 MMcm/d. Expansion plans to increase capacity to 13.4 MMcm/d by late 2025 and 15 MMcm/d by 2027 were approved in November 2025, but upgrades are still underway.

Expert Insight: The reliance on LNG imports exposes Colombia to global price volatility and geopolitical factors, particularly given the current political climate between Bogotá and Washington.

Several additional LNG projects are planned to alleviate pressure, including Ecopetrol’s Coveñas terminal (scheduled for 2027 with potential capacity of 11.3 MMcm/d by 2030), the Ballena LNG terminal (expected in early 2027 with 7–8.5 MMcm/d capacity), and the Buenaventura project (aiming to start in mid-2026 with 1.7 MMcm/d capacity). Pipeline imports from Venezuela, utilizing the Antonio Ricaurte line (capacity of 14 MMcm/d), remain a potential low-cost alternative, but require repairs and regulatory changes.

Rising Imports and Market Dynamics

LNG imports are increasing, sourced primarily from the United States and Trinidad and Tobago. Volumes peaked in 2024 due to drought conditions impacting hydropower generation. While improved rainfall in 2025 eased immediate demand, the structural supply gap persists. By January 2026, imports were already 60% higher year-over-year, and are expected to rise toward the maximum capacity of the Cartagena FSRU in 2026. However, declining output in Trinidad is increasing Colombia’s reliance on US Gulf Coast LNG.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is driving the natural gas supply challenges in Colombia?

Declining domestic production from mature fields, a halt to new exploration licenses, and delays in expanding import infrastructure are all contributing to the challenges.

What role does the Sirius project play in addressing these challenges?

The Sirius offshore project is considered Colombia’s main long-term supply hope, with the potential to produce around 13 MMcm/d once fully developed, but first production is not expected until around 2031.

How is Colombia currently addressing the immediate supply gap?

Colombia is increasingly relying on imported LNG, primarily through the Cartagena regasification terminal, and is developing additional LNG import projects.

As Colombia navigates this energy transition, will the balance between domestic production, LNG imports, and potential regional pipeline agreements ultimately secure a stable and affordable gas supply for the country?