Norway’s Defence Spending: Are We Preparing for the Wrong War?

The Shifting Sands of European Security: Are We Preparing for the Wrong War?

Across Europe, a significant military build-up is underway. Norway, for example, has rapidly increased its defense spending to nearly 3.5% of its Gross National Product (BNP), mirroring a trend seen continent-wide with a target of 5% by 2035. Recent acquisitions include five new frigates costing 136 billion kroner, 54 Leopard tanks for 23 billion kroner, and a 114 billion kroner investment in six German submarines and long-range missiles. But a growing chorus of experts questions whether this focus on conventional military strength is misplaced.

The Rise of Hybrid Warfare

According to experts like Tormod Heier, a professor at the Norwegian Defence College, the most likely threat to Norway and Europe isn’t a large-scale military invasion, but rather a sustained campaign of hybrid warfare. This encompasses a range of tactics – from cyberattacks and cable sabotage to disinformation campaigns and attempts to disrupt critical infrastructure like power grids. These attacks are often difficult to attribute and relatively inexpensive to execute.

“We are preparing for the wrong war,” Heier argues, suggesting that resources are being allocated to address the least probable scenario. He believes greater investment should be directed towards civilian preparedness, total defense capabilities, strengthening the police force, and bolstering societal resilience.

Europe’s Military Capabilities: A Complex Picture

While Europe collectively possesses a larger military than Russia – approximately 2 million soldiers compared to Russia’s 1.1 million – the effectiveness of that force is debated. Europe also boasts a significant advantage in air power, with around 2100 fighter aircraft compared to Russia’s 1200. However, Russia maintains a substantial advantage in nuclear weapons, possessing approximately 6000 warheads against roughly 500 held by France and the United Kingdom.

Sverre Diesen, former Chief of Defence of Norway, acknowledges the potential for hybrid attacks but emphasizes that the current arms build-up is primarily driven by the anticipated departure of the United States from a leading security role in Europe. “The threat isn’t necessarily greater, but the equation changes when the Americans are gone,” he explains.

The Finnish Model: Total Defense and Societal Resilience

Finland offers a compelling case study in preparing for hybrid threats. With a long history of facing Russian aggression – including annexation of territory during the Winter War – Finland has cultivated a culture of preparedness. This involves close collaboration between farmers, businesses, cultural figures, and government agencies, all trained to recognize and respond to potential threats.

The goal isn’t simply to repel an attack, but to deter Russia by demonstrating a robust and resilient society that is difficult to destabilize. This approach emphasizes societal preparedness alongside military strength.

The Role of Law Enforcement and Civilian Infrastructure

Both Heier and the current Norwegian Defence Chief, Eirik Kristoffersen, agree that responding to hybrid threats requires a shift in focus beyond traditional military roles. Kristoffersen stresses that cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and sabotage are primarily the responsibility of law enforcement and civilian agencies.

“Our task is first and foremost to defend against military attacks in Norway,” Kristoffersen states. He advocates for strengthening total defense capabilities to build resilience across society.

Recent incidents, such as the cutting of the Estlink 2 power cable and other communication cables in the Baltic Sea in December 2024, highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to sabotage.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What is hybrid warfare? Hybrid warfare involves the use of a combination of conventional and unconventional tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation, and economic pressure, to achieve strategic objectives.
• Is a large-scale Russian invasion of Europe likely? Experts suggest a full-scale invasion is the least probable scenario, but hybrid attacks are considered a significant and growing threat.
• What is total defense? Total defense is a comprehensive approach to national security that involves the entire population, not just the military, in preparing for and responding to threats.
• Why is Finland considered a model for defense? Finland has a long history of facing Russian aggression and has developed a robust system of total defense and societal resilience.

As the geopolitical landscape evolves, Europe faces a complex security challenge. While maintaining a strong military is essential, a comprehensive approach that prioritizes civilian preparedness, societal resilience, and a proactive response to hybrid threats is crucial for safeguarding the continent’s future.