EU Female Lung Cancer Mortality Stabilizes, Except in Spain – February 3, 2026

After more than 25 years of increases, female lung cancer mortality rates across the European Union are showing a trend toward stabilization, at around 12.5 deaths per 100,000 women, representing a roughly 5% reduction compared to the 2020–2022 period. Spain is the sole exception, where female deaths from lung neoplasms are expected to continue to rise. These findings come from a study published recently in the scientific journal Annals of Oncology, coordinated by the University of Milan in collaboration with the Universities of Bologna and Parma, which estimated cancer mortality rates for 2026 in the EU and the United Kingdom.

A Historical Trend

This positive trend is limited, as the improvement will only be seen in women up to 64 years of age, while mortality rates continue to rise in older age groups. The primary driver behind these changes is tobacco consumption: approximately 85% of lung neoplasms occur in smokers or former smokers, and without smoking, this type of cancer—one of the most widespread globally, including in Italy—would be rare.

Gender Differences and Smoking Habits

“Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in both sexes in the EU,” explains Carlo La Vecchia, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at the University of Milan and principal co-author of the study. “Mortality rates continue to decline among men, but remain almost double those observed in women in 2026. This trend is consistent with historical differences in tobacco consumption behaviors between the sexes. In most of the countries considered, previous increasing trends among women appear to be stabilizing, with the exception of Spain. The reason for this trend is that men everywhere started smoking before women.”

The decline in female mortality mirrors trends already seen in the United Kingdom and the United States, where women began and quit smoking earlier, leading to increases and subsequent decreases in deaths years before the current situation in Europe. “Currently, the prevalence of smoking in both sexes is less than 10% in the United States and the United Kingdom, while it remains higher in the EU,” says Claudia Santucci, a researcher at the University of Milan and first author of the article. “In particular, Spanish and French women started smoking later than those in other European countries, but also quit later. The same applies to Italian women, who, however, have always smoked less.”

The Italian Situation

For decades, smoking was largely a male habit, but this gap has narrowed: in Italy, the number of female smokers has grown significantly in recent years (and is now declining slowly), while the number of male smokers has decreased sharply. The number of cases of lung cancer and mortality have risen among women, while declining among men. Deaths among women have also increased for another type of cancer closely linked to smoking, bladder cancer.

In 2026, approximately 1.23 million deaths from cancer are expected across the EU, corresponding to an estimated mortality rate of 114 per 100,000 men (a 7.8% decrease compared to 2020-2022) and 74.7 per 100,000 women (a 5.9% decrease). In the United Kingdom, approximately 172,000 deaths from all cancers are expected, with an estimated mortality rate of 98 per 100,000 men (an 11.25% decrease) and 80 per 100,000 women (a 7.25% decrease).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current trend in female lung cancer mortality rates in the EU?

After over 25 years of increases, rates are stabilizing at around 12.5 deaths per 100,000 women, with a roughly 5% reduction compared to 2020–2022.

Which country is an exception to the stabilizing trend?

Spain is the sole exception, where female deaths from lung neoplasms are expected to continue to rise.

What is the primary factor driving changes in lung cancer mortality rates?

Tobacco consumption is the primary factor, with approximately 85% of lung neoplasms occurring in smokers or former smokers.

Given these findings, what steps do you think are most crucial for continued progress in reducing cancer mortality rates in Europe?